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Champions League quarter-final first leg predictions and best bets

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Champions League quarter-final first leg predictions and best bets
Champions League quarter-final first leg predictions and best betsAFP
The stage is set for the quarter-finals of the 2024/2025 Champions League with some of the most thrilling matchups in European football.

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With eight elite teams battling it out over two legs, the competition promises drama, intensity, and plenty of moments to savor. From heavyweight clashes like Arsenal taking on defending champions Real Madrid to underdog stories like Aston Villa facing Paris Saint-Germain, each tie offers its own unique intrigue.

Whether it's Bayern Munich's firepower against Inter Milan or Barcelona's flair meeting Borussia Dortmund's resilience, every game has the potential to shape the road to Munich's Allianz Arena for the final in May.

We dive into the stats, analyse the odds, and make some savvy bets as we break down the potential outcomes of all four matches.

ArsenalReal Madrid, Tuesday, 8:00 pm

Arsenal - Real Madrid
Arsenal - Real MadridAFP

This will be only the third meeting between Arsenal and Real Madrid in European competition, following their clash in the 2005/06 UEFA Champions League Round of 16. Arsenal secured a memorable 1-0 victory at the Santiago Bernabéu, courtesy of Thierry Henry’s iconic solo goal, and held Real Madrid to a 0-0 draw at Highbury to progress 1-0 on aggregate.

Since then, Real Madrid have cemented their status as European giants, amassing a record 15 Champions League titles. However, their recent form may provide Arsenal with an opportunity to capitalize. The Spanish side has struggled for consistency, managing only two regulation-time wins in their last five matches - narrow victories over Leganés (3-2) and Villarreal (2-1).

Despite Arsenal’s inconsistent Premier League performances, their European campaign has been impressive. The Gunners boast the best defensive xG (expected goals) against per game in this season’s Champions League (0.88) and have conceded fewer goals per game (0.6) than any team except Inter Milan.

With odds of 137/100 for an Arsenal win on bet365, Mikel Arteta’s men will look to exploit Real Madrid’s vulnerabilities, especially from set pieces. Backed by a passionate home crowd, Arsenal have both the momentum and tactical tools to challenge the reigning champions.

Tip: Arsenal win @137/100

Bet explanation: The bet wins if Arsenal beats Real Madrid regardless of the scoreline.

Bayern MunichInter Milan, Tuesday, 8:00 pm

Bayern Munich - Inter Milan
Bayern Munich - Inter MilanAFP

Harry Kane to score at 57/100 on bet365 stands out as a prime choice for this high-stakes clash between Bayern Munich and Inter Milan. The in-form striker, closing in on the Champions League golden boot, is a constant threat in front of goal. Kane has netted five times in his last five Champions League outings and has attempted three or more shots in four of his last six appearances.

This encounter promises to be tightly contested. Bayern Munich remain unbeaten in their last 22 home matches in the competition, showcasing their dominance at the Allianz Arena. Meanwhile, Inter Milan boast one of the tournament's most resilient defenses this season, making them a tough opponent to break down.

With Kane’s clinical finishing and Bayern’s attacking quality, this game could hinge on moments of brilliance. Backing Kane to attempt three or more shots seems like a reasonable choice given his red-hot form and ability to deliver on the biggest stages.

Tip: Harry Kane shots over 2.5 @57/100

Bet explanation: The bet wins if Harry Kane plays three or more shots against Inter Milan.

BarcelonaBorussia Dortmund, Wednesday, 8:00 pm

Barcelona - Dortmund
Barcelona - DortmundAFP

Borussia Dortmund’s defensive frailties in the Champions League often stem from conceding high-quality chances, which explains why goalkeeper Gregor Kobel has let in 14 goals from an expected goals (xG) on target of 14.4. Meanwhile, Barcelona have emerged as one of the standout teams in the competition, dismantling opponents with ease, including Dortmund, whom they defeated 3-2 away during the league phase.

Backing Barcelona to win at 19/50 on bet365 appears to be excellent value. The Spanish giants are unbeaten in their five European encounters with Dortmund (W3, D2), and manager Hansi Flick boasts a perfect record against the German side. Across his time with Bayern Munich and Barcelona, Flick has won all six meetings with Dortmund, averaging three goals per game (18 in total) and scoring at least three goals in five of those matches.

With Barcelona’s attacking firepower and Flick’s tactical acumen, Dortmund face a daunting challenge. Given Barcelona’s form and historical dominance over their opponents, this matchup heavily favors the Blaugrana.

Tip: Barcelona win @19/50

Bet explanation: The bet wins if Barcelona beats Borussia Dortmund regardless of the scoreline.

PSGAston Villa, Wednesday, 8:00 pm

PSG - Aston Villa
PSG - Aston VillaAFP

For the first time, Paris Saint-Germain and Aston Villa will face off in European competition, bringing together two coaches who are well-acquainted with each other. 

Unai Emery and Luis Enrique have a plenty of history, with Emery managing just two victories in their ten encounters (D1, L7), both of which were secured on home turf. Their last meeting dates back to the 2016/17 season, when Luis Enrique's Barcelona staged a remarkable comeback against Emery's Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League Round of 16, overturning a 4-0 deficit with a 6-1 win in the second leg.

PSG enters this matchup in exceptional form, having experienced a significant resurgence in 2025. They remain unbeaten in Ligue 1 after 28 games, are set to appear in the Coupe de France final, and have recently eliminated Liverpool from the Champions League. The team's attacking prowess is further bolstered by Ousmane Dembélé, who has scored seven goals in his last six Champions League appearances for PSG. As a result, the French side is heavily favored to advance in this tie.

Tip: PSG win @2/5

Bet explanation: The bet wins if PSG beats Aston Villa regardless of the scoreline.

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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.