Skip to main content

Hearts v Sturm Graz: Champions League qualifier predictions, best bets and odds

Hearts v Sturm Graz: Champions League qualifier predictions, best bets and odds
Hearts v Sturm Graz: Champions League qualifier predictions, best bets and oddsFlashscore

UEFA Champions League football arrives at Tynecastle. Following a strong win for Sturm Graz in Austria, football betting analyst Frank Monkhouse expects broken hearts.

This article contains affiliate links to advertisers. The analysis is our own. Gamble Aware 18+

Midweek brings the UEFA Champions League 2nd qualifying round second legs. Scottish Premiership runners-up Hearts host the Austrian Bundesliga's second-best team, Sturm Graz, from 19:45 BST on Tuesday.

Sturm Graz arrive in Edinburgh eager to protect an aggregate lead. The Blacks romped to a 4-0 home win at the Stadion Graz-Liebenau seven days ago, placing one foot in the next round. It was an impressive performance from Fabio Ingolitsch's team, but the head coach will demand his men finish the job in style.

Hearts pushed eventual Premiership champions Celtic all the way to the finish line last season. A runners-up spot secured a rare appearance in this competition, but the dream is in danger of ending almost as soon as it began. Could we see Hearts dumped out of Europe after just two games? It'll take a huge effort from the Jambos to remain in the running.

Hearts v Sturm Graz betting tips

Over 2.5 goals @ 1/2 (bet365)

Both teams to score @ 1/2 (bet365)

Sturm Graz or draw @ 5/6 (bet365)

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

Sponsored content

bet365

One of the UK's leading bookmakers. See the latest welcome offers and sign-up details.

Claim your bet365 bonus | bet365 review | Flashscore's betting hub

bet365
bet365bet365

18+. Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org

Total goals - Over 2.5

I'm happy to take my lead from the first game, backing Hearts and Sturm Graz to produce more goals.

The Austrians eased to a 4-0 victory last Tuesday, when a bet on over 2.5 goals would've landed inside 50 minutes. The match stats show that Hearts finished with 67 per cent of the ball possession and 19 shots on target. 

With their 33% possession, Sturm Graz created 20 shots, scoring one goal in the first half and another three in the second period.

Hearts dominated the Austrians last time in everything but the final score. The Scots passed up five big chances to score in Styria. Being 4-0 down on the scoreboard means the locals can't sit back. 

They must keep creating chances, but be much more clinical in the final third. I don't expect them to go through, but I do believe Hearts will make things interesting.

With Hearts pushing forward from the first whistle, desperate to score early and pile pressure on their opponents, they'll leave gaps at the back. That'll be punished by a fearsome Sturm Graz counter-attack.

The first leg produced 38 total shots. With that in mind, you can bet on over 2.5 goals, sit back, and enjoy the show from the Scottish capital.

Tip: Over 2.5 goals @ 1/2 (bet365)

Bet explanation: Hearts v Sturm Graz must produce more than two goals from both teams combined. If they do, you'll secure a profit.

Both teams to score - Yes

I picked two winners out of three predictions last week in Austria. 

Followers banked a return on Sturm Graz to win at odds of 5/6 and over 2.5 goals at 4/5. The only one that let us down for an early-season full-house was Sturm Graz to win and both teams to score.

With Hearts needing to score four goals just to stay in the tie, I'm confident they'll get more joy at Tynecastle. Despite the aggregate score, the locals will pack the stadium, creating a fantastic atmosphere. It's on the players to feed off that energy and repay the fans for their efforts. As we saw last week, Hearts will get chances to score, and they can't afford to be wasteful.

Hearts finished the first leg with six shots on target, scoring none. Sturm Graz also finished with six shots on target, but hit the net four times. The beaten team had seven attempts from outside the box, and missed a one-on-one opportunity. 

It's also worth noting that Sturm Graz could've, and probably should've, scored more. They hit the woodwork twice.

Sturm Graz don't need to come to Scotland and play to win. Instead, they'll sit back, remain organised, and protect what they've got. However, we've already seen that The Blacks don't need too many chances. Four goals from six shots on target tells a story. 

Back both teams to score on Tuesday, and you'll boost your betting balance, regardless of the final score. A 3-1 win for Hearts is every bit as useful as a 1-1 draw or a 2-1 away win. 

Tip: Both teams to score @ 1/2 (bet365)

Bet explanation: If Hearts and Sturm Graz both get on the scoresheet, you'll land a return.

Double chance - Sturm Graz or draw

My third and final prediction for Flashscore in the Hearts v Sturm Graz Champions League qualifier is on the visitors.

Following last week's four-goal win, I expected Sturm Graz to be favourites with bookmakers, but that's not the case. In my opinion, the Austrians are overpriced, and that makes them worth backing.

The away team have proven they can absorb pressure, shut down their opponents, and then turn defence into attack at lightning speed. They are extremely effective in transition, and that won't change because they have a lead. In fact, Hearts' desire to get forward and score goals plays into our hands.

When following Sturm Graz in the double chance market, you need them to avoid defeat. A draw is just as good as an away win. If Hearts fail to out-score Sturm Graz, your bet lands, and the odds are more than fair.

You can back Sturm Graz on the double chance market as a single, add to your bet builder or include it in your midweek UCL accumulators.

Tip: Sturm Graz double chance @ 5/6 (bet365)

Bet explanation: Anything other than a home win is good news for followers of this bet.

Hearts v Sturm Graz odds

Hearts win @ 17/20 (bet365)

Draw @ 3/1 (bet365)

Sturm Graz win @ 5/2 (bet365)