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You won’t find anybody associated with Crystal Palace taking this game lightly. How can they, given that Larnaca beat them 1-0 at Selhurst Park in the league phase of this competition back in October?
The Eagles, who have faced upheaval this term with key players leaving, injuries and a wantaway head coach, find themselves 10 points off fifth place in the Premier League and 10 points off the relegation zone – consistent, if nothing else.
The Europa League Conference means a lot to them, but so too does it to AEK Larnaca, who have shocked plenty this term.
As well as beating Palace, the Cypriot outfit downed AZ Alkmaar 4-0 and conceded just a solitary goal in six league phase outings – they well and truly deserve their place at this stage of the competition.
Crystal Palace v AEK Larnaca Tips
Crystal Palace to Win to Nil @ 10/11 (bet365)
Team to Get Most Cards: AEK Larnaca @ 4/5 (bet365)
Under 3.5 Goals @ 4/9 (bet365)
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Parking the Bus
Although it would be unfair to describe AEK Larnaca as masters of the dark arts, they are clearly a defensive side that is capable of causing trouble on their rare counter-attacking raids.
Take that game between these two teams in October, for example. Crystal Palace had 67% possession, won eight corners, took 16 shots and hit the woodwork – only to be beaten by one of Larnaca’s two shots on target.
You sense that Palace are in a decent enough place right now. In recent weeks, they’ve beaten Tottenham and Wolves, led Manchester United until Maxence Lacroix was sent off and, in Jorgen Strand Larsen, have an able deputy for the injured Jean-Philippe Mateta.
They may well have beaten Larnaca back in October based on the patterns of play, so why not back revenge, rather than repeat, here?
Tip: Crystal Palace to Win to Nil @ 10/11 (bet365)
Explanation: This tip is successful if Crystal Palace win the match and AEK Larnaca fail to score.
On the Back Foot
Based on the current league table, AEK Larnaca are the third-best team in Cyprus right now. Without being disrespectful, a somewhat in-form Crystal Palace should prove far too strong.
We anticipate a similar pattern to the October clash between these sides, which will mean that the Eagles have lots of the ball, attack hard and look to break the back of this two-legged tie.
On that day, the card count ended 2-2, but the suspicion is that Palace – assuming they don’t go behind, as they did six months ago – will put Larnaca under all sorts of pressure on Thursday. That could manifest itself in the Cypriots losing their discipline over the course of 90 tough minutes.
Tip: Team to Get Most Cards: AEK Larnaca @ 4/5 (bet365)
Explanation: This tip lands if AEK Larnaca receive more cards than Crystal Palace in the match.
Goals (Un)galore
Eight goals were scored in AEK Larnaca’s six games in the opening stage of the Europa Conference League – and four of those came in a single outing.
Palace, meanwhile, are a defence-minded side; a tally of 33 goals in 29 Premier League games this term is testament to that.
Assuming that the Londoners keep a clean sheet here – that’s a distinct possibility, then the Under 3.5 Goals market holds plenty of appeal accordingly.
Tip: Under 3.5 Goals @ 4/9 (bet365)
Explanation: The bet wins if the match has three goals or fewer in total.
Crystal Palace v AEK Larnaca: Match result odds
Crystal Palace: 11/50 (bet365)
Odds valid at the time of publication and may change.
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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.