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Villa’s 3-1 triumph at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara was very much on brand for Emery’s men.
They conjured up three goals despite having just seven touches of the ball inside the Bologna box all game, while almost exclusively allowing their opponents to enjoy territorial advantage.
Whether Bologna can find any positives from the first leg remains to be seen, but they did have 21 touches in the Aston Villa box and fired in 19 shots at goal.
Unfortunately for them, they didn’t look particularly threatening, with just 0.85 of xG created from that final third output. So, the question for punters here is do Bologna have it in them to be more productive on away soil?
Aston Villa v Bologna tips
Under 2.5 Goals @ 8/11 (bet365)
Both Teams to Score - No @ Evens (bet365)
Team with Most Shots on Target: Aston Villa @ 4/7 (bet365)
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Lack of goals
Having to come to England to chase the game is not the ideal assignment for Bologna.
They don’t score many goals, notching just 42 in 32 Serie A outings this term, and they’ve only scored twice or more against top eight opposition in their domestic division once all season long – so they’re going to have to deliver an anomaly of a performance at Villa Park.
Sitting on a two-goal cushion on home soil, the Villains will feel comfortable. And with Emery enjoying such an excellent record in these knockout-style ties, you sense that his players will be perfectly drilled to manage the game and keep proceedings nicely under control.
Tip: Under 2.5 Goals @ 8/11 (bet365)
Explanation: For our bet to land, the game needs to see two or fewer goals scored.
Lies, damn lies and statistics
Although there were four goals scored in the first leg of this contest, that perhaps doesn’t tell the whole story.
Just 2.42 of xG was created by the two sides combined, with 14 of the 27 shots taken coming from outside of the penalty area.
Those are the sort of numbers that would suggest that another four-goal thriller is unlikely at Villa Park, so let’s opt for a selection that had landed through 90 minutes of the first leg… before Bologna eventually found the net in injury time.
Tip: Both Teams to Score - No @ Evens (bet365)
Explanation: As long as both teams don’t score at least once, our bet lands.
Home comforts
Even though Villa are very much in the driving seat as far as the aggregate scoreline is concerned, we don’t anticipate that Emery will park the bus on Thursday.
His side are at home, for starters, and we anticipate that the Spaniard will pick a strong starting 11 in order to see the job through.
The first leg saw both teams record four shots on target, but there was a different context in Italy: the Villains were happy to give up the ball and territory in order to guarantee a secure defensive base.
On home soil and with the freedom of a two-goal cushion, we expect their extra class to manifest itself in more meaningful attacking output than that of Bologna.
Tip: Team with Most Shots on Target: Aston Villa @ 4/7 (bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if Aston Villa record more shots on target than Bologna, as per the official match stats.
Aston Villa v Bologna: Match result odds
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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.