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The first leg wasn’t a particularly gripping watch between these sides, but Nottingham Forest won’t care.
Lucas Digne was adjudged to have handled in the penalty area in the second half, with Chris Wood stepping up to hammer home the resulting spot kick emphatically.
With Igor Jesus denied by a world-class save from Emiliano Martinez, Forest will feel that they were the better side and fully deserved to take the advantage into the second leg at Villa Park on Thursday (20:00 GMT).
Do the Villains have what it takes to mount a comeback in front of their own supporters?
Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest Tips
Nottingham Forest/Draw Double Chance @ Evens (bet365)
Nottingham Forest to Qualify @ 4/6 (bet365)
Igor Jesus to Score or Assist @ 12/5 (bet365)
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
A Question of Form
Aston Villa are an excellent football team on their day; it’s just that they haven’t had their day for a while now.
The Villains have lost their last three games. But it’s not so much the results that catch the eye, more the lacklustre performances that Unai Emery’s players have put in.
They have scored once in 270 minutes of football, with potential injuries to John McGinn and even Amadou Onana unlikely to aid them in improving quickly in the final third.
Contrast that to Nottingham Forest, who haven’t lost since March and dispatched Chelsea in the Premier League on Monday despite making eight changes to their first 11.
Vitor Pereira has instilled a tremendous sense of self-belief in his players, which has been reflected by several excellent wins in recent weeks.
Given what we’ve seen of late, Forest surely have to be favoured to claim a positive result at Villa Park.
Tip: Nottingham Forest/Draw Double Chance @ Evens (bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands here if Nottingham Forest win or draw the game.
The Final Countdown
If Forest manage to find the net at Villa Park, it means that Villa will have to score twice just to take the tie into extra time.
That shows how fine the margins are for the hosts on Thursday, and given how they’ve struggled in front of goal of late, Forest – brimming with confidence – will surely fancy their chances of completing the job and qualifying for a first continental final since 1980.
Tip: Nottingham Forest to Qualify @ 4/6 (bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if Nottingham Forest qualify for the final… by whatever means necessary.
Jesus has Risen
One of the players who has truly benefited from Vitor Pereira’s Forest renaissance is Igor Jesus.
Comfortable playing as a number 9 or 10, Jesus has become a focal point of Pereira’s attacking play – scoring three goals and assisting another, in his last four outings.
Potentially on penalty duty, which can be very handy with goalscorer bets, the Brazilian will surely start on Thursday having been substituted at half-time against Chelsea – having already found the net from the spot at Stamford Bridge – to give him a rest.
As this second leg opens up as Villa seek an equaliser, the in-form Forest forward will surely enjoy the space he is likely to be afforded.
Tip: Igor Jesus to Score or Assist @ 12/5 (bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if Igor Jesus scores or assists a goal.
Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest: Match result odds
Nottingham Forest: 15/4 (bet365)
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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.