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Things were looking a little shaky for Wouter Vrancken in his early days at Hearts after losing 0-6 on aggregate to Sturm Graz in Champions League qualifying, allied to a 1-2 loss against Aberdeen in the Scottish Premiership.
So the 4-0 victory over Dundee United on Sunday was just what the doctor ordered, with the Jam Tarts looking far more assured at both ends of the pitch.
Benfica are a class above that company, of course, but even they are capable of stuttering: a 2-2 draw with Academico Viseu on Sunday, in a game they were priced at 1/10 with the bookmakers, suggests that they could be prone to an upset of sorts.
So can Hearts defy the odds at Tynecastle on Thursday (19:45 GMT kick off)?
Hearts v Benfica Tips
Benfica -1 Handicap @ 21/20 (Bet365)
Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals @ 5/6 (Bet365)
Rafa Silva to Score Anytime @ 6/5 (Bet365)
Odds courtesy of Bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
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Challenging the Odds
When these two sides met at the Estadio da Luz a week ago, Benfica were priced at 1/8 with the bookmakers – and made good on that pricing with a 6-1 demolition of Hearts.
Things have happened since then, including Hearts’ big win over Dundee United and Benfica’s dropped point against Viseu, but the basic premise has not… that is, the Portuguese side are simply better than their Scottish opponents.
Home form is a factor in Hearts’ favour, and they will be highly motivated to show Benfica what they’re all about on Thursday.
But Marco Silva’s men will be looking to bounce back from weekend disappointment; a game in which they had 73 touches in their opponent’s box and 28 shots at goal.
In the first leg, Benfica won the shot count 24-10 (18-5 for shots inside the penalty area) and the ‘big chance’ count 8-2, with an xG scoreline of 3.65-1.20.
Those raw numbers reveal just how superior the Portuguese side were, so to be able to back them with a -1 handicap here at an odds-against price just feels like too much of an adjustment from the bookmakers.
Tip: Benfica -1 Handicap @ 21/20 (Bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if Benfica win by a margin of two goals or more.
Expected Goals
Even though they were trounced in the first meeting in Lisbon, it was interesting to see how Hearts were able to find ways to create chances.
They averaged 0.12 xG per shot, which is very good indeed, and created two ‘big chances’ as per the Opta definition.
You would presume that they’ll have more possession and more chances this coming Thursday, although of course it would be foolhardy to forget just how easily Benfica cut through the Jam Tarts’ defence as well.
Given the 1-6 scoreline, this game is something of a dead rubber but both teams have something to prove… and end-to-end, goal laden encounter is not out of the question.
Tip: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals @ 5/6 (Bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if both teams score and there’s a total of three or more goals in the game.
Silva Service
Rafa Silva opened the scoring in the first leg.
He found the net against St Gallen too, while last season he scored eleven goals in 23 starts for Benfica and Besiktas – including a goal scored in the Champions League.
Odds against to notch against Hearts? That seems a hearty price.
Tip: Rafa Silva to Score Anytime @ 6/5 (Bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if Rafa Silva scores at any time.
Hearts v Benfica: Match result odds
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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.