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This first leg of the tie, which will kick off at 5.45pm (GMT) on Thursday, will offer a glimpse at how seriously Emery will take the knockout phase of the Europa League.
His main ambition this term will surely be to finish in the top four of the Premier League, securing qualification to next season’s Champions League. On Sunday, Villa take on Manchester United – with whom they sit level on points in the EPL table. That’s a vital game… more important than this one, perhaps?
As for Lille, things have not gone according to plan this term and they find themselves in sixth place in France’s Ligue 1. They finished a lowly 18th in the Europa League opening phase too, needing extra time to see off Red Star in their play-off clash.
Lille v Aston Villa Tips
Under 2.5 Goals @ 4/5 (bet365)
Benjamin Andre 2+ Fouls @ 5/6 (bet365)
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Low Key in Lille
If you look at the bare facts, Aston Villa have scored just 39 goals in 29 Premier League games this term.
Their success has been built around defensive stability as much as anything, and while that has been tested recently – a 1-4 defeat to Chelsea particularly hurtful, generally you’d expect Emery’s side to be solid in Lille.
There they will meet an outfit whose last six Ligue 1 outings have ended either 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1. Goals are not a currency that Lille are particularly bullish about, so with the characteristics of both teams in mind – plus the nature of first leg fixtures in continental ties – a low-scoring encounter seems a fair enough launchpad for bets here.
Tip: Under 2.5 Goals @ 4/5 (bet365)
Explanation: The bet is successful if the match ends with two goals or fewer in total.
Boisterous Benjamin
You sense that this game will be determined, to some extent, by the strength of the starting eleven that Emery fields – especially with that Manchester United game less than 72 hours after this one.
So punters are advised to be cautious when betting on the match result market, with better value perhaps found elsewhere.
Villa will have plenty of the ball against a tactically cautious Lille side, which could see the French side perform numerous tackles in a bid to halt the onslaught.
A prime candidate could well be midfield hardman Benjamin Andre, who averages 1.6 fouls per game in Ligue 1 and 1.7 in the Europa League. His fouls count in his last five games reads 2-0-3-2-3, so backing him to commit two or more here – at a fair price, no less – seems like a good option.
Tip: Benjamin Andre 2+ Fouls @ 5/6 (bet365)
Explanation: The bet lands if Benjamin André commits two or more fouls during the match.
Build a Bet
This isn’t the easiest game to predict and unravel, so perhaps a bet builder – leaning into the idea of a low-scoring, low-action 90 minutes – is the way to go.
Bet365 offers their ‘goal ranges’ market, which offers a yes and no selection on the various ranges. Backing ‘no’ on the 3-6 goals range is essentially a better value way of predicting under 2.5 goals, while we can expect Benjamin Andre to commit 1+ foul for the reasons detailed above.
Other picks for our bet builder are Under 11 Corners – a lack of final third action is our expectation, as well as 2+ shots from Villa’s Tammy Abraham, who we expect to start in attack ahead of Ollie Watkins on Thursday.
Explanation: The bet wins if there are fewer than three or more than six goals (0–2 or 7+), Benjamin André commits at least one foul, the match has under 11 corners, and Tammy Abraham takes two or more shots.
Lille v Aston Villa: Match result odds
Odds valid at the time of publication and may change.
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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.