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Following a dramatic midweek of UEFA Champions League fixtures, the English Premier League returns.
Round four begins with five games in the fan-friendly Saturday 15:00 kick-off slot, including Fulham’s trip to Anfield. The action continues with two fixtures played on Saturday evening, and another two on Sunday, before Leeds host Newcastle on Monday.
Manchester City lead Arsenal on goal difference, with both clubs boasting a 100% record from their first three starts. Hull City are the best of the rest in third place, with fans of the Tigers hoping their side can keep pace with the leaders this month.
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Having picked five winners from six bets in each of the last two rounds, football gambling writer Frank Monkhouse has more predictions to consider.
Chelsea v Hull, Saturday, 15:00 BST
Chelsea play their second match of the week at Stamford Bridge, following Wednesday’s League Cup 3rd round meeting with Leeds United.
Blues manager Xabi Alonso has suffered a mixed bag of results since he arrived in London. Chelsea start the round in fourth place, following two wins and a defeat.
They were involved in two goalfests, beating Fulham 3-2 on the road, and Brighton 4-3 at this stadium, before losing 2-1 at Arsenal last Sunday.
We find Hull City a place and a point better off than their hosts. The Tigers have two wins and a draw from three games. They scored back-to-back victories over Man Utd and Coventry, before drawing with Aston Villa.
Those results are even more impressive when realising Hull have yet to concede a goal.
I expect Chelsea to score another entertaining win on their patch, but at odds of 2/9, we can do better.
My Chelsea v Hull betting pick is for Cole Palmer to have two or more shots on target.
Opta Stats show that Palmer has had three or more shots on target in each of his previous nine league matches at this venue. The Englishman has also had at least one shot on target in all but one of his last 13.
With that stat in mind, I advise a bet on Palmer to have two or more shots on target. You can follow this wager as a single or add it to your weekend accumulators and Bet Builders.
Tip: Cole Palmer 2+ shots on target @ 4/5 (bet365)
Bet explanation: You’ll make a profit if Palmer has at least two shots on target against Hull. It doesn’t matter if he scores with those efforts.
Tottenham v Everton, Saturday, 17:30 BST
The live TV cameras are set up at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Saturday evening for the visit of Everton.
The locals find themselves down in the relegation zone after taking only one of the first nine points available. Spurs lost their opening two league matches, conceding five goals and scoring none.
They’ve yet to find the net, but did end 0-0 at the City Ground seven days ago, picking up their first point.
Everton have performed better than Spurs so far, entering with a proud unbeaten record and five points on the board. David Moyes has instilled a never-say-die attitude in his Toffees, and that was evident in a draw with Man Utd last time.
Everton beat Crystal Palace 2-0, and drew 1-1 at Bournemouth, before that energetic four-goal draw with the Red Devils.
Opposing the locals has served us well so far, and I’m happy to continue that tactic.
You’ll get odds of 27/10 on Everton to win, but I’ll play it safe and take the away team on the double chance market. Followers have a two-in-three chance of making a profit, with both the away win and draw paying out.
Backing Everton on the double chance landed in each of their three league games so far. Opposing Tottenham with the same wager also has a 100% success rate.
There’s little doubt that Tottenham will improve and grow into the season, but I’ll continue to take them on until the Londoners give me a reason to stop.
Tip: Everton or draw @ 4/5 (bet365)
Bet explanation: If Saturday’s match ends in a draw or an away win, you’ll beat the bookies.
Sunderland v Arsenal, Saturday, 20:00 BST
Top of the bill on the Premier League’s Saturday programme comes from the Stadium of Light, as Sunderland prepare to take on the defending champions.
The Black Cats and Gunners met twice in league action last term, with Arsenal winning 5-2 on aggregate, although Sunderland did snatch a hard-earned point here last November following a 2-2 draw.
Sunderland carry an even split of results after three games, with one win, a draw, and a defeat. Regis Le Bris and his team beat Fulham 1-0 in their only previous home match. Wilson Isidor climbed off the bench to score the winner in the 75th minute, but it was far from convincing.
The victors ended with just 41% of possession and four shots on target. I expect them to struggle against an Arsenal side with a 100% record after three matches.
Mikel Arteta’s men hammered Coventry City 3-0 in London, and ended August with a 1-0 win in Birmingham. They looked every bit a team capable of winning two titles in a row when fighting back from a goal down to beat Chelsea 2-1 at the Emirates six days ago.
Focusing on their previous road trip, Arsenal had 60% possession when beating Aston Villa 1-0, had two shots at goal, and allowed none.
Winning at the Stadium of Light is never a simple task, but Arsenal are playing with confidence and showing no signs of slowing down.
Keep things simple, and back Arsenal to make it four wins from four league games at 9/20 (bet365). At the odds offered, an Arsenal win is best suited to multiples.
Tip: Arsenal win @ 9/20 (bet365)
Bet explanation: If Arsenal score more goals than Sunderland on Saturday evening at the Stadium of Light, you'll receive a profit from the bookies.
Coventry v Brighton, Sunday 14:00 BST
Sunday brings a double header from the English Premier League, and we begin at the Coventry Building Society Arena.
Frank Lampard’s newly-promoted Sky Blues are winless in their three games, scoring no goals and conceding five.
The home team are rock-bottom of the division, and UKGC-licensed bookmakers make them a strong bet to be relegated, suffering a quick-fire return to the Championship.
Brighton opened with an impressive 4-0 home win over Aston Villa, but lost 4-3 on matchday two. The Seagulls completed the set with a 1-1 draw against Leeds in East Sussex.
Traders working at the most popular betting apps have the away win as their favourite, with the pre-match odds suggesting a strong showing from Fabian Hurzeler’s men. Will they deliver?
I expect Brighton to pile pressure on Coventry, but the Seagulls lack the consistency needed to make them a strong play. Therefore, we head into the player betting for higher odds.
Brighton midfielder Diego Gomez came close to scoring in last weekend’s draw with Leeds. The 23-year-old did provide an assist for Jack Hinshelwood for the simplest of tap-ins in that opening-day win over Unai Emery’s troops.
The stats show that Gomez has had at least three shots at goal in each of his last five Premier League appearances, and I expect the Paraguay cap to be an important player on Sunday afternoon.
Tip: Gomez to score or assist @ 13/10 (bet365)
Bet explanation: Diego Gomez must score or provide an assist during this match for the bet to win.
Man Utd v Man City, Sunday, 16:30 BST
The biggest Premier League match of the week comes from the Theatre of Dreams.
It’s the 198th Manchester Derby, and United enter with home advantage and the lion’s share of wins. The head-to-head stats have Man Utd on 80 wins in all competitions, against the 62 of their bitter rivals, with 55 matches ending in a draw.
It’s worth noting that, in both derbies last season, the away team lost and failed to score a goal. Man City won 3-0 at the Etihad in September, and Man Utd responded with a 2-0 win at Old Trafford.
I could stick my neck on the line and predict the winner, but the H2H shows me a better approach.
Backing under 3.5 goals would’ve bagged you a profit in each of the last six derbies, a run that stretches back to May 2024. Going back further, under 3.5 was the correct call in 9 of 10. I’d encourage my followers to add under 3.5 goals to their bet slips.
Derbies are often nervy affairs, with neither team willing to push hard for the win, leaving themselves exposed to the counter-attack.
The pre-match betting odds available on the bet365 app have an away win as the most likely outcome here, with 11/10 available. Man City last won at Old Trafford almost three years ago, which does little to inspire confidence.
I’ll stick with this match producing fewer than four goals from both teams combined at 2/5. Not the kind of odds that’ll make you rich overnight, but I’m confident backers will get a serious run for their money, and the stats make it a strong play.
If you’re looking for a more appealing price, I suggest Haaland to score at 4/6. The towering Norwegian striker leads the way for shots this season with eight on target. No other EPL player can match that at this stage.
Haaland has eight goals in seven appearances in this fixture, ensuring he’ll be popular.
Tip: Under 3.5 goals @ 2/5 (bet365)
Bet explanation: Your bet wins if the Manchester derby produces fewer than four goals from both teams combined.
Leeds v Newcastle, Monday, 20:00 BST
Monday Night Football comes from Elland Road, and entertainment is guaranteed as Leeds United face off against Newcastle United.
The stadium will be packed to capacity, with millions more worldwide following the action on TV and the best live streaming apps.
Both clubs enter with unbeaten records, thanks to a win and two draws in their opening three starts. Newcastle sit higher in the league thanks to a slightly better goal difference, but there’s very little between the teams.
Leeds have played only one home match so far, drawing 1-1 with Brentford on gameweek two. Monday is Newcastle’s second away match of the new campaign, after beating Tottenham 2-0 in London.
Results show Leeds fans haven’t celebrated a win over Newcastle since a 2-1 achieved at St James’ Park in January 2021. They haven’t seen Leeds beat Newcastle at Elland Road for almost six years.
I am happy to side with the away win here, but will take the safety net offered by the double chance market.
In the last seven renewals of this fixture, we’ve had four draws. The three that didn’t end level were won by a single goal. Newcastle beat Leeds 4-3 in January of this year. Included in that seven-match run is a 1-0 win for Newcastle at this venue, and that 2-1 win for Leeds mentioned earlier.
With draws a regular occurrence when Leeds and Newcastle collide, and with both clubs already drawing two of their three league games thus far, I’m taking Newcastle or draw in the double chance betting.
Tip: Newcastle or draw @ 4/7 (bet365)
Bet explanation: If Newcastle can avoid defeat at Elland Road on Monday before a bumper crowd, you’ll secure a profit from the match.
Betting on the Premier League
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