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Celtic took a strong squad to Portugal for their Europa League clash with Benfica on Thursday, but they returned home red-faced following a 1-4 thrashing in which their opponents crafted 3.18 xG from a whopping 46 touches in the Hoops’ box.
Hearts, meanwhile, gave a solid account of themselves in their Conference League meeting with Nordsjaelland.
They dominated the play, created the best chances and were somewhat unfortunate to miss out on all three points courtesy of the Danes’ late equaliser.
These two sides played four times last season, and they were always good value; each of those encounters had at least three goals in them. Can we expect more of the same on Sunday?
Celtic vs Hearts Tips
Hearts +1.5 Asian Handicap @ 4/7 (Bet365)
Both Teams to Score @ 8/13 (Bet365)
Over 2.5 Goals @ 8/15 (Bet365)
Odds courtesy of Bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
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A Dangerous Underdog
Logic dictates that betting against Celtic on home soil in the Scottish Premiership is not an overly savvy move.
But that denies how far the gulf in class between the Bhoys and Hearts has closed since the Jambos’ Tony Bloom-inspired revolution.
Indeed, Hearts had the better of these games last term (W2 D1 L1), producing a huge display to land a 2-1 win at Celtic Park.
Yes, things have changed since – Hearts have lost both head coach Derek McInnes and talismanic striker Lawrence Shankland to Rangers, but the bookmakers’ pricing (Celtic are 4/7 favourites) has surely overvalued the importance of that duo.
Celtic are without the injured Cameron Carter-Vickers, Alistair Johnston and Yang Hyun-Jun, which has coincided with a run of four defeats in their last five outings – conceding three or more in a trio of those.
Hearts won’t fear the trip to Celtic Park, and while their form has been patchy, their last two outings – that dominant draw with Nordsjaelland and a 5-0 thrashing of St Mirren – confirm they’re heading in the right direction.
This Asian handicap selection even allows our bet to land if Celtic win by a single goal…
Tip: Hearts +1.5 Asian Handicap @ 4/7 (Bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if Hearts win, draw or lose by a single goal. Our bet loses if Celtic win by 2+.
Attack Stronger Than Defence
The four Premiership meetings between these sides last season ended 3-1, 1-2, 2-2 and 3-1.
It’s a small sample size, but it confirms the feeling that both of these sides are more effective in the attacking third than when defending their own territory.
The data doesn’t always tell the true tale in the Scottish Premiership, as there is such a gulf in class between the teams at the top and the bottom of the table, but when Celtic come up against better sides, they have been overwhelmed defensively – Benfica, Ferencvaros and Rangers have notched three or more against them lately.
The attacking qualities of Hogh, Nygren and co need no introduction, however, so we can expect – and hope for – a goal-heavy game on Sunday.
Tip: Both Teams to Score @ 8/13 (Bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if both teams find the net at least once.
Goals Galore
When we anticipate that both teams will score, often there’s value in the Over 2.5 Goals selection as well.
That certainly came up trumps last season in games featuring this pair. That quartet all crossed the 3+ goal line, with three of them serving up four goals in thoroughly entertaining fare.
Little has changed to sway us from predicting a similar verdict on Sunday, with Celtic’s defensive woes and injury absentees meshing nicely with Hearts’ mini revival of late.
Only two points separated these sides in the Scottish Premiership table last season… they are evenly matched and both goal-hungry to boot.
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals @ 8/15 (Bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if there are three or more goals in this game.
Celtic vs Hearts: Match result odds
These odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.
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