England vs Croatia: Nations League predictions, best bets and odds

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The race to the 2026/27 Premier League title makes way for the return of international football this week.

England fans prepare for two UEFA Nations League - Group 3 matches as their favourites host Croatia on Thursday before visiting Spain on Sunday.

Thomas Tuchel's team enter round five with nine points from a possible 12, leaving them three behind early leaders Spain. Will they close the gap here?

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Keep reading as football betting writer Frank Monkhouse aims to carry his impressive recent form into the internationals.

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England vs Croatia: Betting tips

England win @ 1/4 (bet365)

Over 2.5 goals @ 19/40 (bet365)

Bellingham to score @ 5/4 (bet365)

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

Result - England win

I open with a bet on England to beat Croatia.

It's a simple bet to place, and it's easy to follow too. If England use home advantage to outscore Croatia, your bet wins. A 1-0 achieved with a late goal pays the same as a stunning 5-0 victory.

Let's start by analysing the head-to-head stats available on the Flashscore app.

Did you know these teams have met 13 times? England have eight wins, Croatia three, and two matches ended in draws. 

It's worth knowing that England beat Croatia in each of their last four meetings, building an aggregate score of England 14-3 Croatia. That four-match winning streak includes a 7-0 win at Stadion HNK Rijeka in this competition last month.

After England thrashed Croatia only a few weeks ago, thanks to a double from Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka, it makes sense to stick with the Three Lions at home.

The only slight concern about backing England is the odds. Traders working at bet365 have the hosts at 1/4. That's a price best suited to your accumulators and England vs Croatia Bet Builders. It won't be too popular with those who like to bet on singles.

In Nations League - Group 3, England have three wins from four, scoring 14 goals and conceding three. That makes them the current highest scorers in the pool with the best defence. 

Croatia opened with a win over the Czech Republic, but lost their next three. They've scored four goals, but already conceded 14. That'll encourage England's big-name attackers.

Keep this one straightforward and bet on the home team to collect another valuable three points.

Tip: England win @ 1/4 (bet365)

Bet explanation: If England score more goals than Croatia on Thursday evening, your bet wins.

Total goals - Over 2.5

Moving to the second of my three England vs Croatia UEFA Nations League predictions, I'm targeting slightly higher odds on this match to produce more than two goals.

This time, the winning team doesn't matter. You need this fixture to produce three or more goals from both teams combined.

Returning to the H2H, I noticed that a bet on over 2.5 goals landed in each of the last two renewals. England won 4-2 at World Cup 2026; before that, a 7-0 thrashing last time.

Digging deeper, over 2.5 goals has hit 70 per cent of the last 10 meetings. That was enough to catch my eye, and I'm hopeful of more goals.

We know Tuchel's team is packed with attacking talent. England played two Nations League matches in October and scored 10 goals. They made two appearances in September, with those matches producing a total of seven goals.

With the likes of Kane, Bellingham, Saka, and Gordon facing an opponent that has leaked an average of 3.5 goals in this season's Nations League games, I'm confident followers will enjoy a run for their money on Thursday with this bet.

The beauty of the total goals market is that it covers the entire match. It's a real value-for-money bet that could land early, and you could be counting your profits long before the final whistle.

Lastly, over 2.5 goals won in less than 40 minutes when England and Croatia last met.

Tip: Over 2.5 goals @ 19/40 (bet365)

Bet explanation: You want to see at least three goals scored when England and Croatia go toe-to-toe.

Anytime scorer - Bellingham

As is often the case in my big-match previews for Flashscore, I've saved the biggest odds for last.

Following in-depth research, I settled on Jude Bellingham to score at any time in this match. A goal inside 60 seconds is every bit as sweet as Jude netting with the final kick of the ball.

Why do I rate Bellingham's chances so highly? Studying the stats offers real encouragement.

Bellingham scored against Croatia in that 7-0 win, netting in the 21st minute. He was also on target when England beat Croatia 4-2 at the World Cup.

The 23-year-old attacker from the West Midlands plays his club football in Spain with La Liga giants Real Madrid. Jude has already scored five goals in 17 appearances in all competitions. 

Bellingham got off the mark early against Espanyol in August, then scored against Malaga, Rayo Vallecano Racing, and most recently, AEK Athens in the Champions League.

You can aim for a winner at higher odds by backing Bellingham to score first or support him to score or provide an assist at 8/15 (bet365).

Bellingham started England's last home match, a 3-2 defeat to Spain, and played 81 minutes. He also played the entire game when these teams last met, scoring one and providing three assists in a stunning performance.

Tip: Bellingham to score @ 5/4 (bet365)

Bet explanation: Bookmakers will boost your balance if Jude Bellingham scores at any time during the match with Croatia. 

England vs Croatia: Betting odds

England win @ 1/4 (bet365)

Draw @ 6/1 (bet365)

Croatia win @ 15/2 (bet365)