France v England: World Cup predictions, best bets and odds

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It’s called the third-place play-off, but it brings together two wounded giants. On Saturday night in Miami Gardens, France and England will settle unfinished business after a World Cup that seemed within their grasp, both convinced they let slip far more than just a place in the final. Between Didier Deschamps’ farewell tour and Kylian Mbappé’s pursuit of records, this bronze medal means more than it might seem.

France’s story is a cruel one: rarely has a team looked so dominant over six matches only to be knocked out. Sixteen goals scored, only one real scare against Paraguay, and an aura of invincibility shattered in 90 minutes against Spain. La Roja didn’t just beat Les Bleus, they outclassed them, pushing a frustrated Deschamps into a refereeing controversy that Pierluigi Collina dismissed out of hand. The coach will therefore take charge of his 185th and final match in charge of France, tasked with handing over a medal-winning team to his successor rather than a broken one. And if a semi-final exit now feels like a national tragedy, perhaps that’s his greatest achievement: after 14 years, he has set the bar so high that reaching a World Cup semi-final is now seen as failure.

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England’s torment is of a different kind: the pain of a golden opportunity squandered through fear of winning. Leading for more than half an hour against Argentina, Thomas Tuchel’s men gradually retreated until they suffocated themselves before collapsing in the space of six minutes late on. Sixty years after their 1966 triumph, the wait goes on, and the ghosts of 1990 and 2018 — two previous third-place play-offs they also lost — continue to haunt a team that has never managed to turn a World Cup semi-final into a bronze medal. Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, with six goals each, will be determined not to leave America with a second disappointment in the space of four days.

France v England betting tips

France to win @ 17/20 (bet365)

Kylian Mbappé to score anytime @ 22/25 (bet365)

Over 2.5 goals @ 21/50 (bet365)

Odds provided by bet365 for this match. Odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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France to win

The stats tell the story of French dominance stretching back a quarter of a century. Just one England win in the last nine meetings (two draws, six defeats), in a friendly in November 2015, and no competitive victory over Les Bleus since the 1982 World Cup (3-1). The third-place play-off itself has not been kind to the Three Lions, who lost both of their previous appearances: to Italy in 1990 (2-1) and Belgium in 2018 (2-0) — a record only Uruguay can better. By contrast, France are about to play their fourth third-place match, a tally bettered only by Germany, and have won two: against West Germany in 1958 (6-3) and Belgium in 1986 (4-2).

Beyond the numbers, the mindsets are very different. The two exits may look similar, but they feel very different: against Spain, France quickly realised the scale of the task and saw defeat coming, while England had the final within their grasp only to see it slip away in six minutes — a much harder blow to recover from in three days. There is also the matter of expectations: while France obviously wanted the title, the pressure is not the same. They were world champions just eight years ago and won the Nations League in 2021, whereas England have been chasing a major trophy for 60 years, making the disappointment even more bitter.

While both squads are equally talented, the motivation is clearly on the French side: Les Bleus will want to give Didier Deschamps a fitting send-off, and Kylian Mbappé, still in the race for the Golden Boot, will have no shortage of motivation. One last point: no third-place play-off in World Cup history has ever gone to penalties, and only one has gone to extra time — France v Belgium in 1986, to be precise.

Tip: France to win @ 17/20 (bet365)

Bet explanation: this bet wins if France win in normal time.

Mbappé to score

First, there’s frustration to shake off. Silenced against Spain, like the rest of the French attack, Kylian Mbappé now has just 90 minutes left to give his World Cup the shine it deserves. His eight goals have him level with Lionel Messi at the top of the Golden Boot race, and the Argentine will have the advantage of playing last in Sunday’s final. It’s up to Mbappé to strike first and put him under pressure. Behind the immediate reward lies a long-running rivalry: 20 goals in 21 matches and three World Cups for the Frenchman, 21 goals in six tournaments for the Argentine, who holds the all-time record. Whether Mbappé overtakes him on Saturday or has to wait until 2030, the outcome seems inevitable, and the throne could remain in French hands for a generation.

History also offers him another, even more daunting, target. Since Gerd Müller’s 10 goals in 1970, no one has scored more than eight in a single World Cup. A brace against England would put Mbappé among the select group of players to reach double figures at a single World Cup — a club with just three members: Hungary’s Sándor Kocsis (11 in 1954), Just Fontaine (13 in 1958), and Müller himself. The context is favourable: as the only regular starter expected in a heavily rotated line-up, the captain will carry most of France’s attacking threat against an England side unlikely to repeat the deep, suffocating defensive block they used in Atlanta.

France, in fact, have only twice failed to score in two consecutive World Cup matches: in 1930 and 2002. Everything points the same way.

Tip: Kylian Mbappé to score anytime @ 22/25 (bet365)

Bet explanation: This bet wins if Kylian Mbappé scores at least one goal in normal time. Extra time is not included.

Over 2.5 goals

If there’s a World Cup fixture made for attackers, it’s this one. Free from the pressure and tension of a final, the third-place play-off is often an open game, and the stats back this up: in the last 12 editions, from 1978 to 2022, 11 have seen over 2.5 goals in normal time. Only Belgium v England in 2018 (2-0) was an exception, and the trend remains strong in recent years, with three goals in 2022, three in 2014, five in 2010, four in 2006 and five in 2002.

Saturday’s context points the same way. Didier Deschamps, in his final match in charge of France, and Thomas Tuchel are both expected to make sweeping changes, meaning less defensive cohesion on both sides, with two of the tournament’s most prolific attacks on show — Kylian Mbappé still chasing the Golden Boot, and the Harry Kane–Jude Bellingham partnership having scored 12 of England’s 14 goals. Both teams will want to end their campaign on a positive note rather than shut down a match with little at stake. Everything suggests an open, attacking contest, even if tired legs after a month of football could still affect the spectacle, as they did in 2018.

Tip: Over 2.5 goals @ 21/50 (bet365)

Bet explanation: This bet wins if at least three goals are scored in normal time, by either team.

France v England: Match odds

France to win @ 17/20 (bet365)

Draw @ 29/10 (bet365)

England to win @ 31/10 (bet365)

Odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

France v England: Odds to finish third

France to finish third at the World Cup @ 19/50 (bet365)

England to finish third at the World Cup @ 153/100 (bet365)

Odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.