The debate over who is the true G.O.A.T of football persists and has been dividing the internet for decades, but it is undeniable that these two names have shaped history and have long dictated the rules of the game, challenging limits they set themselves over the years.
However, there is a factor common to all humans, even those who sometimes seem to have come from another planet. Time passes and changes us completely. Ronaldo and Messi are not the same players they once were, but they remain the great benchmarks for their respective national teams.
Prominence evident in the numbers
Despite their age, Portugal and Argentina continue to play for their stars, and data from Opta proves that there is still a massive dependence of both national teams on their captains, although Portugal manager Roberto Martínez and Argentine coach Lionel Scaloni use different formulas to try to get the best out of both.
Portugal looks to Ronaldo primarily to finish. Argentina, meanwhile, continues to rely on Messi to create, accelerate, and conclude attacks.
At 41, Ronaldo is the player with the greatest weight in his team's xG among all participants still in the tournament. According to data analysed by Opta, the forward accounts for 56% of Portugal's total xG, making him the only footballer in the tournament above 50%.
In practice, more than half of the quality of the opportunities created by the Portuguese team ended up at the feet or head of their captain. Ronaldo accumulated 2.2 xG, scored two goals, and took 13 shots in 270 minutes, with an average of 0.17 xG per attempt.
The shot map helps to understand how Portugal seeks out their captain. Almost all of the forward's opportunities arose in a central lane, between the six-yard box and the penalty spot. This ends up being a positive sign regarding Ronaldo's ability to find space in prime finishing zones, but it can also reveal some offensive predictability on the part of the Portuguese team.
Opponents know that a large part of the best Portuguese opportunities end up going through Ronaldo. Despite the captain's drop in efficiency, having gone 10 consecutive matches without scoring in the final stages of European Championships and World Cups, special attention to the number seven can be enough to limit a large part of the Portuguese team's offensive danger.
For Argentina, that dependency manifests differently. Messi accounts for 45% of his team's xG, a lower value than Ronaldo's, but he leads the xG+xA ranking by a wide margin: he is responsible for 42% of Argentina's offensive production.
The difference lies in the type of influence. Unlike Ronaldo, Messi does not just appear at the end of plays; he participates in the creation of opportunities, progression with the ball, and linking play between sectors, maintaining a central role in how Argentina builds and accelerates attacks.
The Argentine scored six goals in 200 minutes from 15 shots and averaged 0.18 xG per attempt. Three of those goals came from outside the box.
Data from Opta also shows the quality of Messi's finishing. The Argentine converted shots valued at 1.9 xG into a total of 2.9 xGOT, a metric that measures the quality of the shot after the ball leaves the player's foot. Even so, his six goals represent efficiency far above what was expected.
Ronaldo, on the contrary, went from 2.2 xG to 1.9 xGOT, which suggests that the quality of his finishes slightly reduced the initial value of his opportunities.
Ronaldo cannot match Messi's influence
Although both national teams rely heavily on their respective captains, the numbers show that Messi's and Ronaldo's influence manifests in quite different ways. While the Portuguese remains primarily a finisher, the Argentine maintains a decisive role in virtually every phase of their attack.
The left-footer was voted Man of the Match in both games he started, with ratings of 9.6 and 9.3 on Flashscore, and also achieved a 7.8 as a substitute.
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The Argentine recorded the best average for his national team in the creation parameter and held the third-best record in progression. It is precisely this ability to take on various roles in Scaloni's attack that separates him from Ronaldo in this comparison.
The Portuguese's offensive weight becomes even more evident when analysing the distribution of opportunities. About 72% of Ronaldo's xG was produced solely against Uzbekistan, a match in which he recorded 1.6 xG and received a rating of 8.6 for Flashscore.
In the other two group stage games, the Portuguese captain had a much more reduced influence. Against Colombia, the theoretically more demanding opponent, he managed only two touches in the opposition box.
“Ronaldo is responsible for more than half of Portugal's total xG, although 72% of that value was produced only against Uzbekistan. This excessive concentration on the forward as an offensive reference could be one of the main problems for the Portuguese team so far”, analyses Marek Kabát, an analyst for Flashscore.
Part of this offensive concentration also results from Roberto Martínez's choices. As happened in the European Championship, Portugal continues to struggle to find alternatives when it cannot exploit the central corridor and has not yet managed to extract maximum performance from the trio formed by Joao Neves, Vitinha, and Bruno Fernandes.
That limitation naturally ends up increasing Ronaldo's importance in defining attacks.
The xG+xA data, which combines shot quality with opportunities created for teammates, reinforces that interpretation. Ronaldo accounts for 30% of Portugal's offensive production, while Bruno Fernandes appears with 20%.
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Dependency: strength or weakness?
Having Cristiano Ronaldo or Lionel Messi as a main offensive reference remains a privilege for any national team. Both demonstrate that, even at an advanced stage of their careers, they remain capable of concentrating a share of offensive production that most players cannot reach.
However, this dependency can also represent a risk, and this has been more visible in the play of Portugal, which only advanced in 2nd place in Group K.
"The fact that Messi is responsible for almost half, 42%, of Argentina's offensive production, considering xG and xA, represents an unusually high value. On one hand, it confirms the excellent form he is in; on the other, it raises the question of what could happen if he fails to maintain this level in one of the knockout games”, explains Marek Kabát.
In the knockout stages, both teams face different challenges in accommodating and getting the most out of their main stars.
If Portugal has to find solutions to create danger when Ronaldo is pulled away from central areas and does not receive in favourable conditions near the six-yard box, as happened against Uzbekistan, Argentina needs to avoid having their entire offensive build-up conditioned by a less effective performance from Messi.
Ronaldo remains Portugal's preferred target to finish moves and decide matches, while Messi remains the beginning, the middle, and often the end of the Argentine attack.
Two legends, two ways of carrying a national team, and one question before the decisive games against Croatia and Cape Verde, respectively: What happens when the main protagonist can no longer decide the outcome?
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