Mexico v Ecuador: World Cup last 32 predictions, best bets and odds

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Mexico, one of the three hosts of the 2026 World Cup, have looked super solid so far in this tournament. 

After winning all three of their warm-up matches before the competition began, scoring eight goals and conceding just one, they went on to beat all their opponents in the qualifying matches in Group A, without conceding a single goal.

Things have been slightly more shaky for Ecuador, who started the tournament with a defeat against the Ivory Coast, followed by a goalless draw against the weak Curaçao side in Group E. 

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But when many were already predicting an early exit for La Tri, the team led by Argentine Sebastián Beccacece surprised the football world with a 2-1 victory over Germany, who had already secured top spot in the group. That left Ecuador on four points, seeing them progress to the round of 32 of the World Cup as one of the best third-placed group finishers.

Mexico v Ecuador predictions

Mexico over 0.5 goals at 1.34 with Bet365

Mexico or draw and under 3.5 goals at 1.47 with Bet365

Mexico to qualify at 1.52 with Bet365

Odds courtesy of Bet365. Odds correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

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Mexico to score

My first prediction is in the goals market and is based on the data and statistics available on the Flashscore app and website.

Since the goalless draw against Portugal in a friendly played on March 29th, Mexico have gone on a run of seven consecutive matches scoring at least one goal: four warm-up games and three in the group stage of this World Cup.

In the same period, Ecuador have also played seven matches and only managed to keep a clean sheet against Guatemala and Curaçao, the two weakest teams they faced.

Playing at home and with strong support from their fans, there is a high probability that Mexico will score at least one goal. Add this bet to your World Cup multiples.

Prediction: Mexico over 0.5 goals at 1.34 with Bet365

Explanation: If Mexico score at least one goal in regular time, this bet wins.

Mexico favourites in a low-scoring match

This second prediction combines the match winner and total goals markets. It’s a popular type of bet, as it allows you to get better odds by combining two outcomes in the same match.

For Wednesday’s match, I consider Mexico to be the favourites. As well as playing at home, in Mexico City, the Mexican side has shown itself to be more reliable than their opponents and come into this match highly motivated by their three previous wins.

In the six group stage matches played by Mexico and Ecuador, there were never more than three goals scored, a trend I believe will continue in this match. Furthermore, the last two meetings between Mexico and Ecuador were also low-scoring: in July 2024, in the Copa América (0-0), and in November 2025, in a friendly (1-1). Remember, too, Mexico haven't conceded in this World Cup, either.

Prediction: Mexico or draw and under 3.5 goals at 1.47 with Bet365

Explanation: You will profit from this bet if, in regular time, Mexico do not lose and there are fewer than four goals in the match.   

Hosts to progress

My final prediction for this match is that Mexico will progress to the last 16 of the 2026 World Cup.

Unlike the previous two bets, which only consider the result in regular time, this one includes possible extra time or a penalty shootout. 

Despite the expected balance in this knockout tie, Mexico look better placed to progress than Ecuador. The Mexican team has more experience in World Cup knockout stages, and home advantage could play a pivotal role here, with strong support guaranteed from the stands. 

Prediction: Mexico to qualify at 1.52 with Bet365

Explanation: If Mexico qualify for the last 16 of the 2026 World Cup, this bet wins.

Mexico v Ecuador match result odds

Mexico at 2.18 with Bet365

Draw at 2.95 with Bet365

Ecuador at 3.70 with Bet365

Mexico v Ecuador odds to qualify

Mexico at 1.52 with Bet365

Ecuador at 2.18 with Bet365

Odds courtesy of Bet365. Odds correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

Bet365 holds licence no. 18 for Fixed Odds Sports Betting, issued on 8 April 2019 by SRIJ - Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos.