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Quarter finalists at World Cup 2022 and semi finalists at EURO 2024, the Netherlands are made for the big occasion.
The spine of their team is so strong, although a handful of key players will need to bounce back from tough seasons domestically – Liverpool trio Virgil van Dijk, Ryan Gravenberch and Cody Gakpo did not set the world alight, while Man City duo Nathan Ake and Tijani Reijnders both struggled for game time.
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Don’t forget too that the Dutch will be without the injured pair Jurrien Timber and Xavi Simons.
Japan have their own injury issues – Takumi Minamino and Kaoru Mitoma will both miss the World Cup, but nevertheless this is a Japanese side that has won each of their last six games, with England, Brazil and Scotland among those vanquished.
Could an upset be on the cards at the AT&T Stadium on Sunday (21:00 GMT kick-off)?
Netherlands v Japan Tips
Japan/Draw Double Chance & Under 3.5 Goals @ 13/10 (bet365)
Ryan Gravenberch 72+ Passes @ 5/6 (bet365)
Ryan Gravenberch 1+ Shot On Target @ 9/4 (bet365)
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
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Stormy Weather
Historically, World Cups played in countries with hotter climates have yielded fewer goals per game, on average, than in cooler conditions.
That’s not an exact science, of course, and every game should be judged on its merits. Even so, with temperatures expected to reach 31 degrees in the middle of the afternoon on Sunday in Texas – with thunderstorms also a possibility – this game is going to be played in the steamiest of atmospheres.
It’s also the two teams’ first game of the tournament, and there may well be a mindset that there are easier tasks to come for both in Group F – Sweden and Tunisia being the other sides in the group.
So, a low-scoring game is quite the possible outcome here, which greatly increases Japan’s chances of claiming at least a point from it. Hajime Moriyasu’s side is well organised and has kept a clean sheet in each of their last five outings.
Tip: Japan/Draw Double Chance & Under 3.5 Goals @ 13/10 (bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if Japan win or draw and there are three or fewer goals scored.
Pass Master Ryan
We’re expecting the Netherlands to have plenty of the ball here.
For context, they had 65% possession in their last friendly against Uzbekistan, while Japan yielded to 70% possession in their game against England earlier this year.
The Dutch centre-backs will routinely play the ball into the feet of Ryan Gravenberch, who recorded 70 passes against Uzbekistan.
Given the searing heat forecast, it’s possible that Japan won’t press with their typical high energy; and, it should be noted that England’s Elliott Anderson and Kobbie Mainoo – playing a similar role to Gravenberch – made 112 and 86 passes respectively against the Japanese back in March.
Tip: Ryan Gravenberch 72+ Passes @ 5/6 (bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if Ryan Gravenberch makes 72 or more passes, as per the official match stats.
Shoot On Sight
That man, Gravenberch, features in our third bet, too.
He averaged a shot per game for Liverpool last season, and with Japan likely to sit in a deep block that is tough to break down, the Dutchman may be pulling the trigger from range on Sunday in a bid to find that elusive goal.
Whether said shot goes on target or not is another matter. But at odds of 9/4, there’s value to be had.
Tip: Ryan Gravenberch 1+ Shot On Target @ 9/4 (bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if Ryan Gravenberch records one or shots on target.
Netherlands v Japan: Match result odds
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