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With the World Cup 2026 kick-off almost upon us, we’re analysing each of the 12 groups. On this page, we focus on an intriguing Group D, involving co-hosts the United States, a resilient Paraguay, the ever-gritty Australia, and an exciting Turkey side returning to the grandest stage.
Which nation will top the group, which will qualify, and who are the key players? Flashscore has everything you need to make data-led predictions on 'We Are 26’.
The United States are the favourites to progress as group winners, with bookmakers looking at the Americans’ home advantage as the deciding factor. However, it is not as clear-cut as the USA’s outright dominance in a group where they will face a rejuvenated Turkey, flourishing in young talent, that will push the US all the way for top spot.
There is also Paraguay, making their first tournament appearance since 2010, and Tony Popovic's Australia, which will both be tricky customers for anyone to get past.
On paper, it is a fiercely competitive race for qualification, with any of the four teams capable of making the knockouts. The major bookmakers featured on this page offer betting odds and markets on the World Cup, including Group D.
You can pick a team to qualify, focus on a player’s performances, or play a forecast. There’s something to suit every bettor and budget.
Group D at a glance
- Group D includes the United States, Paraguay, Australia, and Turkey.
- The United States are the highest-ranking team in the group (15th) and arrive with sky-high expectations under elite manager Mauricio Pochettino. They enjoy a significant scheduling boost, playing their fixtures on home soil.
- Turkey (Ranked 25th) return to the World Cup stage for the first time since their historic third-place finish in 2002 after showing immense resolve in the UEFA play-offs.
- The USA are only just ahead of them to win the group in the odds at 11/8, compared to Turkey’s 7/4.
- Australia (Ranked 27th) enter their sixth consecutive World Cup under Tony Popovic.
- Paraguay (Ranked 39th) emerge from a 16-year tournament drought under the disciplined guidance of Gustavo Alfaro.
Group winner and qualification
In this section, we’ll discuss the teams most likely to qualify from Group C, according to the bookmakers’ odds.
Winner - The USA, led by Mauricio Pochettino, have several notable names who they will be relying on to spearhead their charge to the knockout rounds.
2nd Place - Whilst being the bookmakers’ second favourites to qualify, Turkey could just as easily be the first favourites. Their team have a bunch of young stars like Arda Güler and should qualify from the groups.
Dark Horse - Paraguay, despite being ranked lower than Australia, are seen as more likely to cause an upset than the team from down under.
Bottom-placed - Australia are always a competitive side and will have a third-placed finish in their sights, as that could still mean qualification.
Team-by-team breakdown
United States
Led by the experienced Mauricio Pochettino, the USMNT carries the heavy weight of a nation's expectations. Pochettino has brought tactical maturity to a core group of players who have been together for years, including Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams, and Antonee Robinson. Playing in front of a packed SoFi Stadium and Lumen Field should provide a massive lift, yet while they will believe their ceiling is high, the pressure of being the host nation can sometimes be a double-edged sword.
Pochettino has mostly worked with a 4-2-3-1 system since taking over, despite speculation about occasionally using a back three. The structure seems clear, although there are still open questions around the attacking midfield role, the right wing spot and who partners Chris Richards in central defence.
One of the biggest surprises from the squad announcement was the omission of Diego Luna. The Real Salt Lake midfielder arrived in strong form after recovering from injury and many expected him to be included. Instead, Pochettino opted for Alejandro Zendejas after an excellent season with Club América in Liga MX.
Another debated decision was the inclusion of Gio Reyna. Despite barely playing league football during the calendar year, the Borussia Mönchengladbach playmaker kept his place because of the creativity and unpredictability he can offer in the final third, qualities Pochettino clearly values in tournament football.
The feeling around this United States squad is that the talent ceiling is high, but the pressure surrounding a home World Cup will test whether this generation is truly ready to take the next step.
Strengths and weaknesses:
Home advantage gives the USA a major boost.
Pochettino has added tactical maturity to the squad.
The midfield has energy, experience, and athleticism.
The team has several players used to high-level club football.
Pressure could become a problem if results don’t come early.
Paraguay
Managed by Gustavo Alfaro, La Albirroja are back in the global spotlight after missing three consecutive World Cups. True to their footballing DNA, Paraguay under Alfaro are built on physical resilience, defensive discipline, and a compact shape that is notoriously difficult to break down. While they lack the star-studded attacking depth of their rivals, they possess the tactical grit and climate adaptability to frustrate any open, fluid side.
One of the biggest reasons behind Paraguay's resurgence has been the stability Alfaro has managed to create. This is a team that knows exactly what it is: competitive, organised and extremely uncomfortable to play against.
The defensive unit remains the foundation. Gustavo Gómez continues to lead by example, while players such as Fabián Balbuena and Omar Alderete add experience and presence to a back line built to handle physical battles against elite opposition.
Further forward, Paraguay have more talent than they are often given credit for. Diego Gómez has become a key figure in midfield, combining relentless work rate with an ability to drive the team forward. Alongside him, Andrés Cubas provides the defensive balance that allows the more creative players to take risks.
The attacking department offers several different solutions. Miguel Almirón and Julio Enciso bring speed and directness, while Tony Sanabria, Gabriel Ávalos and Álex Arce give Alfaro options depending on the type of match he expects. Few teams in the tournament can match Paraguay's variety of attacking profiles.
This is not a squad built around one superstar. Instead, Paraguay arrive with a clear identity, strong leadership and a group of players fully committed to Alfaro's demanding approach. That combination alone makes La Albirroja a dangerous opponent for anyone in the group.
Strengths and weaknesses:
Paraguay are physically strong and defensively disciplined.
Alfaro’s team are difficult to break down.
They are well suited to tight, tense tournament football.
Their climate adaptability could help in North America.
The squad lacks elite attacking depth.
They may struggle if forced to chase games.
Australia
Under hard-nosed disciplinarian Tony Popovic, the Socceroos are all about substance over style. Popovic has implemented a sturdy, organised framework predicated on a compact defensive block. Though the current squad lacks the globally recognised superstars of past generations, they possess immense spirit and a knack for maximising limited attacking moments. This is a team built for the tournament grind, and they won't be easily intimidated.
The final squad offers a clear picture of where Australian football stands today. Popovic has not been afraid to move on from much of the group that represented the country in recent major tournaments, placing his faith in a younger core while keeping a handful of experienced leaders around the dressing room.
That transition has created opportunities for players such as Cristian Volpato. Once considered unlikely to represent Australia internationally, the attacking midfielder finally committed to the Socceroos and arrives as one of the most intriguing names in the squad. Alongside emerging talents like Nestory Irankunda and Mohamed Touré, he represents the next chapter for the national team.
The preparation has not been ideal. Injuries have removed several options from contention, most notably Riley McGree, whose creativity and energy would have been valuable in a tournament setting. Those absences have forced Popovic to adjust plans and place even greater responsibility on younger players.
Australia may not have the individual star power of some previous generations, but they remain a disciplined, hard-working side that understands how to compete. The objective is ambitious: reach a stage of the World Cup that no Australian team has managed to conquer before.
Strengths and weaknesses:
Australia are organised, committed, and difficult to beat.
The Socceroos bring major tournament experience.
Popovic has built a solid defensive framework.
They are capable of making limited chances count.
The squad lacks global star power.
Creativity in attack could be a concern.
Turkey
Turkey’s return to the World Cup for the first time since 2002 marks a thrilling new dawn. They navigated a gruelling play-off gauntlet against Romania and Kosovo to prove their mettle as a highly cohesive unit. Under their current setup, they boast a fascinating blend of elite midfield experience and some of the most electrifying young prospects in European football. If they capture early momentum, they possess genuine 'dark horse' potential.
Strengths and weaknesses:
Turkey have exciting young talent throughout the squad.
Arda Güler gives them creativity and set-piece quality.
The team proved its character in the play-offs.
Their technical level should trouble Group D opponents.
They haven’t played at a World Cup since 2002.
Maintaining consistency across three matches will be key.
Key players to watch
Christian Pulisic (United States): The AC Milan attacker remains the indisputable face and creative engine of the USMNT. Heading into his second World Cup, Pulisic's ability to unlock tight defences and drive the team forward from wide areas will dictate how far the hosts can go.
A player who has taken his game to another level in the past few seasons in Italy, Pulisic will be an attacking threat for his team and will likely lead in assists or goals for the USMNT by the end of the group stage.
Arda Güler (Turkey): The Real Madrid sensation is the crown jewel of Turkey's new generation. His technical wizardry, exceptional vision, and threat from set-pieces make him the player most likely to provide a moment of magic for the Crescent-Stars.
Güler will likely be over set pieces, so expect assists to come from the Real Madrid man, having assisted four in his seven games for Turkey in 2026
Diego Gómez (Paraguay): The Brighton midfielder has developed his game since coming to the Premier League. His work rate, versatility, and ability to break up play while transitioning effectively into attack make him the tactical heartbeat of Alfaro's side.
A player who can score the extraordinary, if you were looking to back Gómez in any market, it would be shots. In each of his last four seasons playing in both the MLS and Premier League, he has averaged 1.52 shots per 90.
Mathew Ryan (Australia): The veteran goalkeeper and captain dwarfs his teammates in international experience. Playing his club football for Levante, Ryan's steady hands, leadership, and calm organisation from the back will be heavily relied upon to anchor the gritty Socceroos defence.
Being a keeper, the only market Ryan will be part of is saves made. Judging by some of the attacking talent that will be on display, expect Ryan to make 2+ saves per game.
Group dynamics
Knowing the teams and players won’t be enough to guarantee success this summer. There are many areas to consider, including group dynamics, travel, kick-off times, location, and pressure.
The United States open against Paraguay at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. A home win would settle nerves, but Paraguay are exactly the type of team that can turn an opener into a grind.
Australia face Turkey in Vancouver in the other first-round game. That match could shape the race for second place, especially if Turkey want to put early pressure on the USA.
Matchday three brings Turkey against the United States back at SoFi Stadium. If both teams start strongly, this could decide the group winner. Paraguay vs Australia on the same day may also become a survival match, with third place potentially enough to extend the tournament.
Group D predictions
Now that we’ve covered everything worth knowing about World Cup Group D and the current state of the betting, I’ll reveal my predictions. Here are my best bets for June.
Turkey to win Group D @ 7/4 (bet365)
The USA are favourites at 11/8, but Turkey look the more attractive price. This group could be tight, and the gap between the top two in the betting isn’t huge. With Arda Güler and a talented young core, Turkey have enough quality to push the hosts all the way and possibly finish top.
The United States should make the most of home advantage and qualify, while Turkey’s technical quality can help them finish ahead of Paraguay and Australia. A United States/Turkey dual forecast looks like the most logical outcome in a competitive Group D.
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Odds correct at time of writing, subject to change.