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The Ultimate Fighting Championship stages a 12th show in Newark, New Jersey. UFC 328 comes from the Prudential Center, with five bouts included on the main card. With two of those fights being titles, we're in for a treat. The arena will be packed to capacity, with millions more worldwide following the bouts on television and live streaming apps.
Fans' favourite Sean Stickland targets the championship belt at middleweight. To exit the stadium as the new champion, he must find a way past current ruler Khamzat Chimaev. In an America vs Russia face-off, who will take the glory? Traders working at major bookies have Chimaev as a hot betting favourite, with Stickland a dangerous underdog.
MMA fans can use their knowledge of the sport and the UFC to target a profit. The betting apps featured on this page offer a list of pre-fight markets. You can pick the winning fighter, call the total rounds, predict the method of victory, and more. Need a little help finding the value? Former pro fighter Frank Monkhouse offers his best bets and data-led predictions.
UFC 328 tips
Over 2.5 rounds @ 4/5 (bet365)
Chimaev by submission @ 1/1 (bet365)
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Fight winner - Chimaev
We begin with the most popular of all the UFC betting markets, the fight winner. Study the stats, check the latest odds, and bet on a fighter to score the victory. If your selection wins by any method, you'll land a profit. If your pick loses, your bet fails, and the bookie keeps your stake. The fight-winner market gives you a one-in-three chance of beating the book.
I'm picking Chimaev to win in New Jersey. The Russian enters the octagon this weekend as the current UFC middleweight champion, and ranks at number three in the organisation's pound-for-pound list. The 32-year-old brings a professional mixed martial arts record of 15 wins and no defeats. Chimaev has won six by knockout and another six by submission.
The Chechen Wolf has only three points wins on his CV, but two in his previous three bouts. Chimaev went the distance with Kamaru Usman in Abu Dhabi and Dricus du Plessis last time out in Chicago. Another points win is possible, but backers will be just as happy with an early knockout. A win of any description for the belt-holder will boost your betting balance.
Tip: Chimaev win @ 4/23 (bet365)
Bet explanation: If Chimaev beats Strickland, you beat the bookies.
Total rounds - Over 2.5
Moving on to my second bet, I'm highlighting the total rounds market. Here, the traders working at bet365 set the line at 2.5 rounds, and you must predict if the contest will go beyond that point or end early. If you bet on over 2.5 rounds and the contest enters round three, your bet wins, regardless of which fighter exits the stadium with the middleweight belt.
Why am I so keen on over 2.5 rounds when both Chimaev and Strickland bring knockout power to the table? I'm happy to place my trust in the stats and form here. Backing over 2.5 rounds was a smart bet in three of the champion's last five bouts. In that time, he beat Plessis and Usman on points, after out-pointing Gilbert Burns in Florida on UFC 273.
Switching to the challenger, we see Strickland with 30 wins against seven defeats. The former middleweight champion has been involved in 19 fights that have gone the distance, winning 14 and losing five on the scorecards. Sean's last fight ended in round three, and a bet on over 2.5 rounds was a winner in each of his last five, a run going back to UFC 293.
Tip: Over 2.5 rounds @ 4/5 (bet365)
Bet explanation: The winning fighter isn't important here. If the main event goes beyond the midway point of round number two, you'll secure a return.
Method of victory - Chimaev by submission
My third and final pick from this weekend's UFC action in New Jersey comes with the biggest odds attached. Having advised a wager on Chimaev to successfully defend his championship belt, and the bout to go beyond 2.5 rounds, I'll aim higher. Those looking for strong odds in the method of victory market can back the champion by submission.
Chimaev doesn't win too many on the scorecards, usually relying on his striking and grappling to force stoppages, but Strickland isn't easy to budge. The American was last beaten inside the distance by Alex Pereira in the opening round of UFC 276 in Las Vegas. Strickland also won by knockout last time, so Chimaev won't throw caution to the wind.
Chimaev is a skilled wrestler, and he'll be keen to take his popular opponent to the floor and dominate. The plan will be to weaken Strickland over the longer distance, with the champion remaining patient and sticking to the game plan with the hope of scoring a late submission. I am confident Chimaev wins, and I believe he'll grind Sean down with consistency.
Tip: Chimaev by submission @ 1/1 (bet365)
Bet explanation: You need Chimaev to defend his title with a submission win over Strickland. Any other result means you'll lose your stake.
UFC 328 odds
Chimaev to win @ 4/23 (bet365)
Strickland win @ 17/4 (bet365)
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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.