Portugal have made a perfect start to their World Cup qualifying (WCQ) campaign and another win here would further damage Ireland’s dwindling hopes of reaching next summer’s finals.
Match News and Current Form
Portugal have started their WCQ Group F campaign with two victories, although they were pushed hard by Hungary in their most recent fixture and needed a late goal to seal a 3-2 win. That helped extend their winning run to five matches, including the UEFA Nations League final success over Spain that means they’re already guaranteed a play-off spot in the unlikely event they need to fall back on that route. Automatic qualification remains the primary aim for Roberto Martínez’s side, and some solid home form should help them realise that goal - they’ve won their last five games in Portugal, a run that started with a 3-0 victory over Ireland in June 2024.
The play-offs are already looking like the best Ireland can hope for after a slow start to this campaign (D1, L1), with manager Heimir Hallgrímsson “hurt” at the criticism he’s received since September’s unexpected 2-1 defeat to Armenia. He still believes qualification is possible and trusts his players to right what went wrong in Yerevan, which was their fourth consecutive winless game (D3, L1). Ominously as they head to Lisbon, travelling form has been a problem for a while now with just two wins across their last eight games on foreign soil (D1, L5).
Head-to-Head History
A 3-0 win in June 2024 was Portugal’s fourth consecutive unbeaten H2H (W3, D1). These sides also shared a WCQ group for the 2022 World Cup, where Portugal needed two goals after the 85th minute to secure a 2-1 win.
Hot Stats and Streaks
There were goals in both halves of four of Portugal’s last five internationals.
Six of Portugal’s last seven games at home saw both teams score.
Ireland have kept just one clean sheet across their last seven matches.
Ireland conceded the opener in nine of their 12 fixtures under Hallgrímsson.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Cristiano Ronaldo has scored six goals across Portugal’s last five games, five of which arrived after half-time. Adam Idah netted Ireland’s late equaliser against Hungary (D 2-2) and has a goal contribution in both of his last two games for Swansea (G1, A1), despite starting neither.
Portugal were unable to call up injured defender João Cancelo but otherwise look to be at full strength. Ireland’s Evan Ferguson suffered an ankle injury while playing for Roma at the weekend, while fellow forward Troy Parrott is in the squad but is not expected to feature in this clash.
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Betting Analysis
A Portugal win looks likely but they have been prone to conceding, particularly at home, so backing both teams to score seems worth a punt.
Author: John Pennington
