Man City vs Brighton: EFL Cup predictions, best bets and odds

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City’s perfect start to the Premier League campaign came to an end at Villa Park on Saturday, but it was a curious game – the Villains scoring with their only two shots on target, while the Cityzens missed three big chances to find the net.

So there’s no need for alarm at the Etihad, although Enzo Maresca would love to bounce back with an immediate win in front of his own fans.

Brighton’s impressive start to the season ran aground at Anfield on Sunday, where they went down 0-2 in tough conditions.

But the Seagulls are an excellent side, and the question now will be what strength of team will Fabian Hurzeler field on Wednesday?

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Man City vs Brighton Tips

Man City to Win @ 8/13 (Bet365)

Over 2.5 Goals @ 1/2 (Bet365)

Both Teams to Score @ 8/15 (Bet365)

Odds courtesy of Bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

Superior Squad

It’s likely that both managers will make some changes to their starting 11 for this game, given that Premier League and continental assignments are higher on the list of importance.

Maresca fielded a host of youngsters in City’s 5-0 win over Norwich in the last round, but there was still stacks of quality in his side – Rayan Cherki, Ayyoub Bouaddi, Nico O’Reilly, Abdukodir Khusanov and co.

Floyd Samba, who scored twice, looks to be a fine prospect at just 17, while players like Mateo Kovacic, Rico Lewis and Rayan Ait-Nouri add class from the fringes.

It won’t be lost on Hurzeler that two of his key players, Pascal Groß and Lewis Dunk, are aged 35 and 34 respectively. Their game time will need to be managed, and they may not feature on Wednesday.

Brighton are a fine side, but City’s squad is stronger than theirs… and that is likely to count for plenty when they meet in midweek.

And bear in mind that City have also won 21 of their 36 matches against Brighton.  

Tip: Man City to Win @ 8/13 (Bet365)

Explanation: Our bet lands if Man City win this game in regulation time (i.e. not extra time or penalties).

Following the Trend

Of the 16 ties played in the third round of the EFL Cup, 12 witnessed three or more goals… ten of those had four or more.

This is the kind of competition that lends itself to goals. You’ll see hungry fringe and youth players desperate to prove themselves, defensive lapses – a lack of game time or unfamiliarity with shape/tactical requirements – and that cup tie motivation that can see teams throw caution to the wind.

It’s a concept that both Man City and Brighton can lean into, given that they’re both better going forward than they are defensively.

The Cityzens have only kept one clean sheet in their last six outings, conceding two or more goals in four of them. Brighton, meanwhile, have kept their fair share of clean sheets this term, but the xG data suggests they’ve been somewhat fortunate on that front.

Famous last words and all that… but this game, in theory, presents an opportunity for plenty of goalmouth action.

Historically, this clash offers up goals too. The Over 2.5 Goals market has hit in eight of the last 11 ties between the pair.

Tip: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1/2 (Bet365)

Explanation: Our bet lands if three or more goals are scored in this game.

Both Teams to Thrive

Our third selection follows on from our second quite nicely.

These are two evenly-matched sides for the most part, and as mentioned we expect attack to dominate defence on Wednesday (assuming team selections are as we suspect they will be).

Both teams to score has landed in nine of the last 11 meetings between these teams, and even allowing for personnel changes there’s nothing to suggest that the trend won’t continue at the Etihad Stadium.

Tip: Both Teams to Score @ 8/15 (Bet365)

Explanation: Our bet lands if both teams score in this match.

Man City vs Brighton: Match result odds

Man City: 8/13 (Bet365)

Draw: 7/2 (Bet365)

Brighton: 10/3 (Bet365)

These odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.