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In 2022, Chelsea became the first team in history to lose three editions of the FA Cup final in a row.
On Saturday, Manchester City could equal that unwanted record… by succumbing to Chelsea, of all teams.
Given their form of late, Pep Guardiola’s side have so much more going for them than their opponents. Add into the mix the fact that City haven’t lost to Chelsea in their last 13 meetings (W10 D3) and a picture begins to present itself.
But cup finals are, by their nature, one-off games in which anything can happen. The Cityzens weren’t supposed to lose to Manchester United in 2024, nor Crystal Palace in 2025, as per the betting odds… but they did.
So Chelsea fans will be keeping the faith… even if their side does appear to be in some disarray right now.
Chelsea v Manchester City tips
Man City to Win @ 8/11 (bet365)
Man City Over 1.5 Goals @ 8/11 (bet365)
Under 4.5 Cards @ 8/11(bet365)
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
That winning feeling
Wednesday, March 4th… that’s the last time that Chelsea won a game of football that wasn’t in the FA Cup.
Victories over Wrexham, Port Vale and Leeds in this competition have somewhat papered over the cracks of a club that is in relative crisis – from Club World Cup champions to potentially not qualifying for the Champions League in the space of a year.
Such are the injury issues in the Chelsea that Marc Cucurella was forced to play as a left winger against Liverpool last time out, although Robert Sanchez and Pedro Neto could be fit enough to return on Saturday.
But City, even accounting for the fact they played on Wednesday evening, just look a far more likely winner. Their 3-0 midweek win against Crystal Palace means Guardiola’s men have won eight of their prior nine games in all competitions – with a classy Arsenal side defeated twice and, of course, a 3-0 hammering of Chelsea in that span.
Winning, as they say, is a habit. City will feel like they can beat anyone right now… not an accusation that can be levelled at Chelsea, you’d have to wager.
Tip: Man City to Win @ 8/11 (bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if City win this game by any scoreline (inside 90 minutes).
Defensive doubts
You have to go back all the way to November to find the last time Chelsea kept a clean sheet against truly elite opposition.
They shipped eight goals in 180 minutes against PSG, while since the start of February, they have conceded three goals in a game against Man City, Brighton and Nottingham Forest.
The takeaway point is that Chelsea really cannot defend very well… and is there a team in the land better primed to take advantage of that fact than Manchester City? Erling Haaland, Jeremy Doku and Rayan Cherki are all in ominous form.
Tip: Man City Over 1.5 Goals @ 8/11 (bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if Man City score two or more goals.
Card Counting
When Chelsea and Man City locked horns in April, four yellow cards were shown to the players.
Under 4.5 Cards is a selection that would have landed in three of the last four FA Cup finals too, while appointed referee Darren England averages 4.27 bookings per game this term.
On the face of it, there’s just about value in the 8/11 about four or fewer cards being shown on Saturday… and you would like to think England will try not to impose his will too readily on such a high-profile contest.
Tip: Under 4.5 Cards @ 8/11 (bet365)
Explanation: Our bet lands if there are four cards or fewer shown in normal time.
Chelsea v Manchester City: Match result odds
Manchester City: 8/11 (bet365)
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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.