Premier League Gameweek 5: Predictions, best bets and odds

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It's the final round of Premier League fixtures before a break in play for UEFA Nations League action. 

We open with a mouth-watering London derby on Friday evening, as Brentford host Chelsea in a showdown you can follow live from 20:00 BST. The Blues are pre-match betting favourites, but are winless in two, while The Bees are unbeaten in four.

Five matches make up Saturday's programme, with four more on Sunday from 14:00 BST.

With 13 winners from his last three previews, football betting analyst Frank Monkhouse returns with his Premier League Gameweek 5 predictions and best bets. Keep reading as he aims to build on a profitable run.

Brentford v Chelsea, Friday, 20:00 BST

Brentford play Chelsea in Friday's live match, kick-starting a fascinating weekend of football.

Keith Andrews' men enjoy home advantage in West London, with the Bees taking six points from the first dozen available. A win followed by three draws has them in the European places, but plenty of football remains.

Chelsea are one place higher in the Premier League than their hosts, thanks to two wins, one draw, and a defeat. Xabi Alonso's big-spending side arrive at the Brentford Community Stadium knowing they need all three points after two games without a win.

With bookmakers offering more than 100 pre-match betting markets, finding the strongest play can be difficult, but the stats make it easy here.

The head-to-head data on the Flashscore app show a clear trend. Each of the previous four meetings between the Bees and the Blues at this stadium ended in a draw. That run includes a couple of 2-2 draws and two goalless finishes. 

Backing the draw would've landed you a profit in each of Brentford's last three EPL starts. They produced a 1-1 when hosting Sunderland earlier this month. You'll also remember that Chelsea shared four goals with Hull City less than a week ago.

The Blues aren't great on the road either, winning just one of their last six away days, drawing one and losing the other four. Add to that the fact that 10 of Brentford's last 14 league games have been draws, and we appear to have a strong play in the UK capital.

Take Brentford on the handicap at decent odds. That bet covers a home win or a draw.

Tip: Brentford +1 @ 8/13 (bet365)

Bet explanation: The handicap gives Brentford a one-goal start. That means either the home win or another draw will land you a profit.

Tottenham v Aston Villa, Saturday, 12:30 BST

Moving to Saturday's early kick-off, we're back at the stunning Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in North London, where two out-of-form teams face off.

Tottenham start fourth from the bottom of the EPL ladder, with just two points collected from a possible dozen. Spurs lost their first two, but bounced back to steady the ship, ending goalless at Nottingham Forest's City Ground and when hosting Everton.

Few teams in Europe need a win more than Tottenham, following a summer spending spree.

If Tottenham fans think they have it bad, Aston Villa supporters have little sympathy. The visitors won the Europa League last term and secured a return to the Champions League, but they currently have only one team beneath them in the pecking order.

Just one point from 12, with a goal scored and seven conceded, heaps pressure on manager Unai Emery and his squad. 

Which club will gain a much-needed result before a huge TV audience? The stats suggest a winner, with no draws in the last 22 league meetings between Spurs and Villa.

Opta Stats show Aston Villa have won four of their last six league visits to Tottenham. I certainly wouldn't put anyone off a bet on Villa at fair odds, but the total goals market offers a safer alternative.

Incredibly, Tottenham have yet to score a Premier League goal, while Villa have found the net only once. Backing under 3.5 goals would've made you a profit in each of the last five meetings, and I'm happy to stick with that bet.

Under 3.5 goals landed in all four of Tottenham's league starts, and in three of Villa's games. 

Tip: Under 3.5 goals @ 4/9 (bet365)

Bet explanation: The winning team isn't important here. You need Spurs v Villa to produce fewer than four goals.

Brighton v Arsenal, Saturday, 15:00 BST

The champions feature in the pick of the fan-friendly Saturday 15:00 starts, with Arsenal heading to East Sussex.

Fabian Hurzeler takes on Mikel Arteta, with the locals flying high following a solid start. Two wins and a draw mean Brighton opened the weekend in fifth place, and 13 goals make them the division's highest scorers by a distance.

Unbeaten in two, the Seagulls held Leeds United to a 1-1 when last at home, before crushing Coventry City 5-0 on the road.

Arsenal have picked up where they left off, and boarded the team coach to Brighton at the top of the league with four wins from four. The Gunners have scored eight and conceded only one, keeping them one goal ahead of nearest rivals Man City in second place.

Confidence is high in the home dressing room, but it's worth knowing that Brighton are winless in six league games when hosting Arsenal.

Arteta's side hold no fear travelling to Falmer Stadium. Four wins and two draws from their previous six games against Brighton show why traders working at the world's best football betting apps favour an away win.

Arsenal haven't put a foot wrong in the early exchanges of their title defence, and the stats make them a solid bet on Saturday. Add Arsenal on the double chance market to your Bet Builders and weekend accumulators. This approach protects us against another draw.

Tip: Arsenal or draw @ 2/11 (bet365)

Bet explanation: If Arsenal avoid defeat on Saturday afternoon, followers will land a profit.

Nottingham Forest v Coventry, Saturday, 17:30 BST

Our next Premier League Gameweek 5 prediction comes in Saturday's late kick-off, when Nottingham Forest play Coventry at the City Ground, live on TV.

The Tricky Trees know that building on last week's win would drive them into the top half of the league table. Oliver Glasner's outfit followed back-to-back draws versus big-name opponents Tottenham and Liverpool with a hard-fought 2-1 win at Villa Park.

Many Premier League pundits expected Forest to take zero points from the Reds, Spurs, and Villa, but the five collected were a real statement of intent. The home side is good enough to contest the prize places this season.

What can we say about Coventry City's return to the Premier League, other than it couldn't have gone much worse.

Frank Lampard's team are bottom of the league, have failed to pick up a single point, and have already conceded 10 goals. The Sky Blues got off lightly when losing only 1-0 to Man City at the Etihad Stadium in their opening match of September. They were battered 5-0 at home to Brighton six days ago, conceding four in the second half.

There aren't many simple bets in the Premier League this season, but everything points towards a strong win for the hosts on Saturday evening.

Forest's results at the City Ground aren't great, but they've won each of their last six home matches against Coventry City. Add the locals to your multiples.

Fancy another useful stat? Glasner was unbeaten in his first 10 EPL games against promoted teams.

Tip: Nottingham Forest win @ 13/20 (bet365)

Bet explanation: Nothing fancy here. If Nottingham Forest score more goals than Coventry City on Saturday evening, you'll boost your betting balance. 

Bournemouth v Liverpool, Sunday, 14:00 BST

We enjoy four games from the top-flight of English football on Sunday, with action in Bournemouth, Leeds, Manchester, and London.

Bournemouth started down in 15th as they go in search of their first win of the 2026/27 campaign. The Cherries lost their opening match 2-1 at the Etihad Stadium, before drawing 1-1 with Everton, 2-2 at Newcastle, and sharing another four goals at home with Brentford.

A long season spent juggling Europa League and Premier League commitments will make life difficult for Marco Rose's team. They've already conceded as many goals as two clubs currently in the relegation zone, Fulham and Aston Villa.

Bournemouth have leaked three goals in their two previous home matches in this competition. They were also in Spain just three days ago when facing Real Sociedad. As a result, there will be a few tired legs in the camp.

With Bournemouth feeling the pace of a busy schedule, Liverpool look to take full advantage. The Reds aim to win and take all three points back to Anfield. I'm confident Andoni Iraola will get his wish, and Liverpool will feature in many Sunday Premier League accas.

The 20-time Premier League champions are unbeaten so far, with one win and three draws. That doesn't fill backers with confidence, but a strong win on the South Coast would move them up the table and kick their season into gear.

Liverpool have won 14 of 18 league matches against Bournemouth and failed to score in just one. The Reds average three goals per game, which is their highest against any opponent they've played at least 10 times in the EPL.

Reds boss Iraola faces his former employers for the first time since switching to Anfield, and the betting seems convinced he'll mark the occasion with a win. Keeping that in mind, it's worth noting that Reds managers are unbeaten in seven against former clubs. That run goes all the way back to Kenny Dalglish's 2-0 defeat to Newcastle United in April 2012.

These teams scored 11 goals in two meetings last term, with minutes at this stadium. That will lead some bettors to take over 2.5 goals at 1/2, but the match-winner market has enough to hold our interest.

Back Liverpool to collect their second Premier League win of the season at 21/20 with bet365. That price is much better than I expected to find, making it an easy one to back. 

Remember, if you follow enough overpriced bets, you'll have a strong chance of ending the season in profit. You can add Liverpool to multiples, but there's enough value in the offer to back them as a single, increasing your chance of beating the bookies.

Tip: Liverpool win @ 21/20 (bet365)

Bet explanation: An away win for Liverpool will ensure you leave this match with a profit. The winning margin, final score, and time of the goals aren't important here.

Fulham v Man Utd, Sunday, 16:30 BST

We wrap things up at Craven Cottage in South West London, where Fulham welcome Manchester United. 

It's a top-of-the-bill tussle involving the Cottagers and the Red Devils, but which bet is best?

The bet365 trading team has the away win as their odds-on favourite, with Man Utd at 19/20, Fulham at 12/5, and the draw hard to ignore at 27/10.

Man Utd haven't lost an EPL match at this stadium in 10, winning eight and drawing the other two. The team from Old Trafford have also suffered only one defeat in 21 renewals of this fixture, with the spare coming at the Theatre of Dreams in the winter of 2024.

Beyond a poor record against Sunday's opponents, Fulham find themselves stuck on their longest winless start to a top-flight season in six years. They failed to grab a win in six attempts back in the 2020/21 campaign.

Another one for your accumulators, I'm siding with a Manchester United win.

Tip: Man Utd win @ 19/20 (bet365)

Bet explanation: A victory and all three points for Man Utd is all you need at Craven Cottage.