Roma will prepare for their first UEFA Champions League (UCL) home game in more than six years as former manager José Mourinho returns to the Stadio Olimpico with Real Madrid.
Match News and Current Form
Roma’s 1-1 draw at Fenerbahçe on matchday one extended the Wolves’ winless stretch in European fixtures to four (D3, L1), while they couldn’t find success at the weekend. Drawing 0-0 at Como with Donyell Malen seeing red suggests they could have their work cut out to avoid going five major European games without winning one for the first time since September 2016. As they prepare to host their first UCL home fixture since February 2019, losing three of their last five European home matches (W2) also hints at a testing evening ahead for Gian Piero Gasperini’s side against the man who led them to the UEFA Conference League title in 2021/22.
Madrid will face an Italian club that Mourinho previously managed to European glory for the second UCL matchday in a row, having been a little fortunate to beat Inter Milan 2-1 in their opener. They held on to beat Villarreal 1-0 on Saturday following Vinícius Júnior’s dismissal and, although Los Blancos have lost just one UCL main draw fixture under Mourinho (W15, D3), their travelling form is less convincing. Real lost four of their last eight away UCL games (W4), whilst both of their competitive defeats this term were on the road, so the 15-time European champions still have challenges to overcome when leaving the Bernabéu behind.
Head-to-Head History
Madrid have won eight of the 12 previous meetings (D1, L3), all of which came in this competition, including four in a row without conceding. Madrid have also won 19 of their last 21 UCL games against Italian sides (L2).
Hot Stats and Streaks
Three of Roma’s last five competitive matches featured goals after the 75th minute.
Roma scored at least twice in each of their last three home European matches.
Madrid’s last six UCL fixtures produced over 2.5 goals.
Madrid kept a clean sheet in only two of their last eight wins in all competitions.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Manu Koné recorded two goals and a yellow card across his last two outings for Roma, while four of his six goals since joining the club arrived before half-time. Federico Valverde set up Madrid’s winner against Villarreal and has eight goal contributions (G4, A4) across his last nine UCL appearances, compared with ten in his previous 71.
Roma are without Mile Svilar and Bryan Cristante is a major doubt. Éder Militão and Rodrygo remain sidelined for Madrid.
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Betting Analysis
Madrid are favoured to win but Roma’s attacking threat at home shouldn’t be discounted, so backing Real Madrid to win and both teams to score might offer a route to value.
Author: John Pennington