Sunday’s Bundesliga action closes with arguably the most tantalising fixture of the weekend as Freiburg and Bayern Munich, two of the pre-round top three, battle for supremacy following their respective midweek European commitments.
Match News and Current Form
Freiburg’s 2-1 defeat last weekend against Leverkusen knocked them off top spot in the Bundesliga, in turn making it the fifth straight time they had lost the game immediately after summiting the league. Freiburg now return to their familiar position as chasers and enter the round as one of four teams separated by a point at the Bundesliga’s peak, with the added pressure here of performing against the reigning champions after facing a midweek trip to Monaco in European action (L 3-0). They should be confident at home though, as their joint-best Bundesliga start has been built on solid foundations, with a league-low 15 shots on target conceded so far, while they’ve won each of their first three Bundesliga home games for only the second time in club history.
Reclaiming what they will believe is their rightful place back at the top of the Bundesliga from Freiburg last weekend with a thumping 6-1 victory against Leipzig, Bayern Munich come into this round looking down on the rest of the league for the first time since the conclusion of matchday one. Also playing in Europe in midweek when drawing 2-2 with Arsenal, albeit at home and with one more day to prepare for this, Bayern will expect to extend Freiburg’s ongoing losing run against league leaders to nine games. Yet Bayern have found success harder to come by on the road this season, as they arrive here with their lowest away points haul at this stage since 2014/15 (W1, D2).
Head-to-Head History
Freiburg have failed to win 20 of the last 21 competitive H2Hs (W1, D4, L16), with their only victory a shock DFB-Pokal triumph in the 2023 quarter-final. In league action, Bayern haven’t lost since 2015 against Freiburg (W16, D4).
Hot Stats and Streaks
Freiburg have scored a pre-round joint-league high four home goals after the 75th minute.
Ten of Freiburg’s last 11 league matches produced under 9.5 corners.
Bayern’s four Bundesliga wins this season also saw them lead at half-time.
Bayern are the only side yet to concede a headed goal, while Freiburg have scored a Bundesliga-high four headers.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Clear favourite to lift the Ballon d’Or next Monday, mainly due to scoring the most goals (61) in a season across Europe’s big-five leagues in 2025/26 since Cristiano Ronaldo’s identical haul in 2014/15, Bayern’s Harry Kane will fancy his chances of adding to his 16 goals for club and country this season against a Freiburg side he has scored against in the last three H2Hs. Freiburg have their own H2H hero, with regular impact sub Lucas Höler scoring a career-best six goals against Bayern, with only one active Bundesliga player, Andrej Kramarić, scoring more often in the league against them.
Freiburg have no fresh injury concerns, while Bayern’s Jamal Musiala remains sidelined.
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Betting Analysis
Calling a winner here is tough, so backing both teams to score and over 2.5 goals is a safer play.
Author: Matthew Billon