The Magpies, who have largely disappointed this season, have it all to do if they want to earn a victory in North London.
Newcastle's poor record at the Emirates
Not only have they lost on 12 of their last 13 visits to the Emirates Stadium, drawing the other game, but they've also only managed one goal at the venue in the last nine fixtures.
Furthermore, since January 25th this year, no Premier League club has lost more than the Magpies' eight in the last 11 matches.
With European football not yet quite out of reach, however - Newcastle are seven points behind Bournemouth in the Conference League qualification spot - an unexpected win could do wonders for their confidence in the final few games of the 2025/26 campaign.
They play an Arsenal side who've lost their last two Premier League games (2-1 against Bournemouth at the Emirates, and by the same scoreline to Man City at the Etihad Stadium).
Big incentive for the Gunners
It's been four years since the Gunners last lost three top-flight games in a row, and coincidentally, that was the last time they'd gone 1-0 behind in each match, too.
The incentive for Mikel Arteta's squad other than putting the pressure to deliver right back on Pep Guardiola's City side, is that they have the chance to do the league double over Newcastle for the first time since 2020/21, and, if they score on Saturday, they'll reach the 100 mark in terms of the amount of goals plundered against them in the Premier League era.
April has proven to be a difficult month for the Spaniard, mind. Arsenal have suffered 18% of their defeats under Arteta (nine from 51) during the fourth month of the year.
It's also the time of year when, with at least five games played in the month, the Gunners have earned the fewest points under Arteta; 40 in 27 games - equivalent to 1.48 per match played.
Saka back in the squad
To give even more perspective on their current wobble, the North Londoners have lost four of the last six games in all competitions. Incredibly, that's more than in the previous 53 combined (W39, D10, L3).
The importance of Viktor Gyokeres and Bukayo Saka, in particular, therefore can't be overstated.
Although the Swedish international has left a lot to be desired with regards to his all-round contributions, there's no denying he knows where the goal is, and his 12 to date in the league are the most in the Arsenal squad.
Saka's injury concerns have kept him out recently, though Mikel Arteta has declared he is now available again, in a huge boost to the hosts.
Without him, the Gunners' win percentage is just 45% (five wins in 11), with points per game at 1.64.
Compare that to a 73% win ratio (16 wins in 22 games) and an average of 2.36 points per game with him in the starting XI, and the difference is there for all to see.
He's also had the most total shots in the team (63) and the most on target (26).
Guimaraes key for the Magpies
Mikel Merino, who scored in the reverse fixture earlier this season, is out, and Jurrien Timber is also unlikely to feature.
Fabian Schar, Tino Livramento, Emil Krafth and Anthony Gordon are all expected to be out for the Magpies, with Joelinton still suspended.
Eddie Howe may look to Will Osula again to hopefully fire his side to victory, and though the striker has scored in five Premier League matches already this season, he's finished on the losing side in three of them.
Bruno Guimaraes' return is timely for his club too, given that his nine goals in the league are the most from a Newcastle perspective, and the Brazilian also has the most assists (four, joint with Lewis Miley), as well as having created the most chances (39).
Goals virtually guaranteed
In their last six top-flight games, the Magpies have lost three by a score of 2-1, won one of them 2-1 and also lost one 1-0.
Arsenal have lost their last two matches 2-1, have won one of their last six 2-1 and also had a 1-0 victory. Not quite a mirror image of form, but not too far off either.
With only 26 goals conceded in 25/26, the hosts can at least boast the best defence in the division, and that's arguably the biggest problem facing the visitors, whose shot conversion rate is a lowly 15% - the 11th-best in the top flight.
Arsenal have the best conversion rate (19%), and their 63 goals scored this season are only bettered by Man City's 66.
There's only been one goalless draw in the last 29 games in all competitions between the sides, and given that both have scored and conceded the most in the last 15 minutes of their games this season, we can expect some goalmouth action in this one right up until the final whistle.
